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Silver, the price develops a strong "bearish" momentum​

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At the end of February, Russian President Vladimir Putin initiated a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, after which large-scale anti-Russian sanctions were introduced, and in Europe, there was a record increase in gas and oil prices. Now the situation has somewhat stabilized: although the special operation continues, investors hope that soon Russian-Ukrainian negotiations will halt hostilities and decrease the degree of global geopolitical tension.

Additional pressure on the quotes of the instrument is exerted by the expectations of the decision of the US Federal Reserve on monetary policy issues. Interest rates are forecast to rise by 25 basis points today, kicking off a cycle of national monetary policy adjustments. A subsequent press conference by Regulator Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to raise the issue of the impact of the military conflict on the US economy.
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Resistance levels: 25, 25.28, 25.58, 26

Support levels: 24.67, 24.37, 24, 23.6​

 

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GBPUSD, the pound is attempting a corrective growth​

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The British pound traded higher against the US currency during the morning session, building on the upside signal generated the day before when GBPUSD again tried to retreat from its record lows since November 2020.

The pound is supported by an optimistic macroeconomic background from the UK, which was supplemented yesterday by strong data on the labor market. The ILO Unemployment Rate in January showed a decrease from 4.1% to 3.9%, which was better than analysts' forecasts of 4%, and the Claimant Count in February fell by 48.1 thousand after a decrease of 31.9 thousand a month earlier. Average Earnings excluding Bonus in January accelerated from 3.7% to 3.8% 3MoY. Including bonus, the indicator showed an increase of 4.8%, which also turned out to be better than market expectations at the level of 4.6%.

The positive dynamics of indicators allow traders to assume that tomorrow, when the Bank of England meets, the interest rate will be raised for the third time in a row to 0.75%. The "hawkish" rhetoric of the regulator's Governor Andrew Bailey or a 50 basis point correction could stabilize the pound at its current low levels and allow quotations to move higher. The US Federal Reserve is meeting today, and current market forecasts also suggest a tightening of monetary policy and a 25 basis point hike in rates.

Resistance levels: 1.31, 1.315, 1.32, 1.325.
Support levels: 1.3, 1.296, 1.29, 1.285.​

 

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USDTRY, Turkish economy continues to suffer losses​

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The USDTRY pair is declining amid the aggravation of the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe, currently trading at 14.646.

Although Turkey is taking active steps towards a possible settlement of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, acting as a mediator in the negotiation process, the country's economy continues to suffer losses. Yesterday, the head of the Turkish Association of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Simone Kaslowski, said that since the beginning of the conflict, the national economy has already lost more than $40B due to various restrictions. Recent macroeconomic data indirectly confirm it. Thus, the volume of retail sales decreased by 1.5%, and in annual terms, the growth of the indicator slowed down to 7.9% from 13.0% in the previous period. According to the official, inflation in the country will not fall below 60% by the end of the year.

The USD Index is holding at the same levels, around 98.800, amid expectations of the US Federal Reserve meeting, the results of which will be known today. Judging by the numerous statements by regulator officials, the interest rate will be increased by at least 25 basis points. It will not immediately impact inflation, which could act as a deterrent for the dollar. Investors will also be watching today for retail sales data, which is expected to rise 0.4% in February, which is rather subdued given January's 3.8% rise.

Resistance levels: 14.98, 16.58.
Support levels: 14, 12.73.​

 

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EURUSD. consolidation near 1.1​

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The European currency shows mixed dynamics of trading against the US dollar during the Asian session, consolidating near 1.1 and local highs from March 10.

The day before, the instrument managed to demonstrate a fairly active growth, despite the publication of the decision of the US Fed on the planned increase in interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2018. Committee members voted almost unanimously (8 people participating in the meeting voted for the increase), which launched the indicator adjustment cycle. In total, 6-7 increases of 0.25% each are expected this year. In addition, the regulator intends to start reducing its 8.9 trillion dollar balance sheet at one of the next meetings. It is worth noting that the "hawkish" rhetoric of the US financial authorities is aimed at curbing maximum inflation, which reached 7.9% in February on an annualized basis, showing the highest result in 40 years. The Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, noted that the increase in the cost of energy and other goods against the backdrop of a special operation carried out by the Russian authorities in Ukraine will become an additional factor in increasing consumer prices in the short term and will exceed the target value of 2%. At the same time, it should be noted that the decision of the regulator provoked only a short-term growth of the dollar, since the traders have already managed to put this event into quotes.

In turn, the euro is supported by hopes for a peaceful resolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Traders are hoping for progress in the negotiation process, citing comments from officials from both countries as arguments.

Today, the focus of investors is on the February statistics on consumer prices in the euro area, as well as the speech of the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Christine Lagarde.

Resistance levels: 1.1051, 1.11, 1.115, 1.1185.​

Support levels: 1.1, 1.0957, 1.09, 1.086.

 

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USDCHF, "bulls" failed to develop an upward momentum​

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The US dollar showed mixed dynamics against the Swiss franc during the morning session, consolidating near 0.9400. The day before, USD/CHF showed a sharp increase, having updated record highs since April 2021, but then the "bulls" began to quickly lose the initiative.

The reason for the emergence of positive dynamics was the outcome of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which raised the interest rate by 25 basis points. At the same time, the market put such growth into quotes a long time ago, and only a correction by 50 basis points could have contributed to a more active reaction. Instead, the regulator limited itself to reports about the imminent start of reducing its own balance sheet, which currently reaches almost 9 trillion dollars. The Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, noted the impact of a special military operation in Ukraine, initiated by the Russian authorities, on the American economy, stressing that the current situation could significantly worsen logistics and complicate supply chains. Meanwhile, investors hope for a successful negotiation process between representatives of Russia and Ukraine, aimed at a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine.

The focus of traders today will be on a block of statistics on imports and exports in Switzerland in February. In addition, the publication of consumer prices in the eurozone for February is expected, as well as a meeting of the Bank of England, at which the rate may be increased for the third time in a row.

Resistance levels: 0.943, 0.9459, 0.95.
Support levels: 0.9372, 0.9341, 0.93, 0.9271.​

 

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Crude Oil, possible supply disruptions push the price up​

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During the Asian session, prices for WTI Crude Oil are growing moderately, developing the "bullish" momentum formed last Wednesday, when the instrument was trading near local lows since February 25. By the end of the week, "black gold" quotes are trying to consolidate above the psychological level of 100 dollars per barrel, reacting to the uncertainty about oil supplies from Russia.

Meanwhile, Russian troops continue to conduct a special operation on the territory of Ukraine, which has already met with sharp opposition from the Western world. Countries and private companies are refusing to buy Russian energy resources, and the current situation is destabilizing the balance of supply and demand in the market even more. According to the International Energy Agency forecast, in April, Russia may reduce production by 3M barrels per day to 8.6M barrels amid the refusal of buyers from exports amid economic restrictions imposed on the country. Currently, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have the opportunity to increase production to compensate for supply problems.

Pressure on oil quotes in the middle of the week was exerted by a report published by the US Department of Energy on the dynamics of energy stocks for the week of March 11. Contrary to forecasts of a further moderate decline of 1.375M barrels, the figure rose by 4.345M. At the same time, gasoline inventories fell more than expected, while US oil production remained unchanged. The increase in the indicator is likely associated with the decision of President Joe Biden to release part of the strategic reserves of "black gold" to reduce prices, but US oil reserves are not unlimited. According to analysts, they can only last for one month.

Resistance levels: 105, 107.67, 110, 114.51.
Support levels: 103, 100, 96.00, 93.97.​

 

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AUDUSD, consolidation near 0.74​

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Last week, AUDUSD showed one of the most significant gains in the past few months, quickly recouping last Monday's losses that led to new local lows since the end of February. Even the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve, where the interest rate was raised by 25 basis points to 0.50%, did not put pressure on the quotes. The regulator's decision marked the launch of a rate adjustment cycle in 2022, which, according to preliminary estimates, could consist of seven rate hikes. In addition, the Fed announced a reduction in its balance sheet, which is currently estimated at nearly 9 trillion dollars, in the next few months.

The rhetoric of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this week, as well as the US President Joe Biden's meeting with North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies to discuss the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the conflict in Ukraine, will be crucial for the short-term dynamics of AUD/USD. In addition, investors will be watching the rhetoric of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate. Today, the country's financial authorities have left the base lending rate at 3.7%, despite the development of the pandemic in the region. Thus, Australia, as a leading exporter to China, may face an increase in buying activity if the local regulator adjusts the figure.

The macroeconomic statistics released on Friday from the US contributed to additional "bullish" dynamics for the Australian dollar. US Existing Home Sales in February showed a decline of 7.2% after rising 6.6% a month earlier, although analysts had expected a decline of 1.0%.

Resistance levels: 0.744, 0.75, 0.755, 0.76.
Support levels: 0.7366, 0.73, 0.725, 0.7164.​

 

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Brent Crude Oil, oil prices have returned to growth​

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The quotes returned to positive dynamics at the end of last week after renewing local lows on February 25 in response to a further deterioration in the situation around Ukraine. Russian troops have been carrying out a special military operation since the end of February, resulting in unprecedented sanctions pressure from Western countries. Thus, the US authorities earlier announced that they were refusing to import Russian energy carriers, but Europe, due to the close connection of energy systems, could not fully support such a ban since it is 40% dependent on Russian gas supplies. Nevertheless, several European countries intend to minimize supplies until the end of this year. In particular, the authorities of the Baltic countries insist on the introduction of a complete ban, but Germany refuses to support the embargo. Analysts do not rule out that Europe will also try to lobby for a complete ban on Russian energy imports, but the position of France, which currently chairs the European Union, may play a key role here.

The situation in the Middle East also remains alarming, where Saudi Arabia reports new attacks by the Yemeni Houthis on oil facilities. Finally, experts are concerned about the surge in the incidence of COVID-19 in China, which is one of the main consumers of oil and petroleum products in the world. The country's authorities adhere to a zero-tolerance policy against the coronavirus. Therefore, they introduce large-scale restrictions in response to even isolated cases of infection.​

• Resistance levels: 112, 115, 118, 121.​
• Support levels: 108, 105, 102, 100.​

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Gold, correction to the global uptrend​

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Traditionally, gold is a safe haven asset during geopolitical tensions, so at the moment traders prefer to close positions on the stock market and look for more reliable assets to invest in order to minimize risks. The growth of the XAUUSD pair is also facilitated by the limited supply of raw materials that arose as a result of sanctions against the Russian economy by Western states. For example, today aluminum has risen in price by 5% after Australia banned the supply of alumina, aluminum ores and bauxite to Russia. This has become another threat to the global supply of metal, which will contribute to global inflation.

Meanwhile, the rise in steel prices reinforces investors' concerns about the shortage of alloys that are used in production. Steel mills across Europe are reducing working hours due to higher electricity tariffs. A negative trend is already being noted in Spain and Germany, they are beginning to slow down or completely stop operations, as rising costs make it unstable even though steel prices are at record levels.

The de-escalation of tensions in Ukraine is likely to stop the upward dynamics of the XAU/USD pair for some time, but the consequences of the current crisis will keep metal prices at a high level near the level of 2K dollars per troy ounce for a long time.

Resistance levels: 1950, 2010, 2060.
Support levels: 1908, 1872, 1849.​

 

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EURUSD, the euro develops a corrective decline​

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The European currency shows a moderate decline against the US dollar during the Asian session, again testing 1.1000 for a breakdown. Demand for risky assets remains quite low at the beginning of this week, as the growing geopolitical tensions keep investors from opening new trading positions.

At the moment, Russian troops continue to conduct a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine, which causes a reaction from Western states regarding new restrictions. This week the EU is preparing to consider the introduction of a new, fifth package of sanctions against the Russian economy. Today, a meeting of representatives of the EU secretaries of defense and foreign affairs will be held in Brussels, where the main topic of the agenda will be the situation in Ukraine. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell will present a report on possible scenarios for further developments in the situation.

Among other things, the new measures may include the introduction of a moratorium on the import of Russian oil and gas, similar to the one currently in force in the United States. However, the position of European states on this matter is still extremely ambiguous. Given high energy prices, the withdrawal of Russian resources could trigger further price pressures. In particular, Germany, which fears for its energy security, opposes the embargo.

The macroeconomic statistics from Germany published today did not have a noticeable impact on the dynamics of the instrument. Thus, the Producer Price Index in February slowed down growth from 2.2% to 1.4%, which turned out to be worse than the market's expectations of an increase of 1.7%. On an annualized basis, industrial inflation accelerated from 25% to 25.9%, only slightly falling short of the expected 26.1%.

Resistance levels: 1.1051, 1.11, 1.115, 1.1185.
Support levels: 1.1000, 1.0957, 1.09, 1.086.​