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Nasdaq 100 - Quotes are approaching the annual low

Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal reported that among the companies that entered the initial public offering (IPO) in 2021, 87% are now trading at a lower price, which lags behind the cost of the initial sale by more than 49%. The negative dynamics is putting pressure on both investors and fund managers, who prefer to direct their capital either in foreign currency or in precious metals. IPO cost statistics look even more alarming: in 2021, the total value of placements on US exchanges was 154.0 billion dollars, but in 2022, placements took place in the amount of only 7.2 billion dollars, which is the lowest figure in the last 10 years, and, taking into account the growth in capitalization of companies, even throughout history.

Quotes of the index are traded within a wide downward channel, approaching the low of the year. Technical indicators maintain a steady sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed several new descending bars.

Support levels: 11100, 10500 | Resistance levels: 11500, 12200​

 

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Crude Oil - "black gold" remains under pressure

Pressure on quotes is exerted by growing fears of a global recession, which are confirmed in macroeconomic publications and comments by official representatives of monetary regulators. In addition, investors are concerned about possible disruptions in oil supplies from Russia, as the country is under sanctions pressure, and the geopolitical risks associated with the escalation of the military conflict in Ukraine are only intensifying. Finally, the fact of the continued release of the energy carrier from the US reserve storage facilities contributes to the decline in "black gold", which leads to a short-term increase in supply on the market. Inventories fell to a 1984 low last week to 427.0 million barrels, according to The Wall Street Journal. In addition, on Monday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered its forecasts for global economic growth: this year it may still be 3.0%, but next year it will drop to 2.2% instead of the 2.8% previously expected.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) report released the day before pointed to an increase in reserves by 4.15 million barrels. For the last reporting week, the report showed an increase in the indicator by 1.035 million barrels. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of similar data from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA).

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are steadily declining. The price range expands from below, making way for new local lows for the "bears". MACD is preserving a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic, having reached the zero level, reversed into the horizontal plane, indicating risks of the oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 78, 79.24, 81, 83 | Support levels: 76, 74, 73, 72​

 

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EURUSD - US dollar continues a record growth

The cost of gas to consumers could rise by 60% in the fourth quarter, with a new high for electricity at 66.6 cents per kilowatt-hour, up 25.0 cents from the previous quarter, according to forecasts by Italian analyst Nomisma Energia. The supply of "blue fuel" from Russia was again under threat after reports were received of the destruction of three strings of gas pipelines of the Nord Stream system near the Danish island of Bornholm. According to representatives of Nord Stream AG, which is the operator of the project, critical damage has been recorded, the timing of the repair of which is still unknown. Meanwhile, experts predict a slowdown in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Italy at least by two times, and the inflation rate is expected to be around 10.0%. Last month, energy prices in the country rose by 44.9% compared to 42.9% a month earlier, food prices rose by 10.5%, and durable goods by 3.9%. The Italian authorities have already allocated more than 50.0 billion euros to stabilize the economic situation, but it is obvious that this is not enough.

The trading instrument is traded within the global downward channel and has almost reached the support line. Technical indicators continue holding a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are moving away from the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming new bars, being in the sell zone.

Support levels: 0.948, 0.93 | Resistance levels: 0.967, 0.986​

 

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EURUSD -The euro returns to declining​

The European currency is falling, retreating after an active corrective growth the day before, when quotes retreated from record lows. The reason for the strengthening of the downtrend was mainly technical factors, as well as the prospect of foreign exchange interventions by regulators.

In turn, the news background remained quite pessimistic, which did not allow the "bulls" to develop an uptrend. In particular, Gfk Group's Consumer Confidence Index, published yesterday in Germany, corrected from -36.8 points to -42.5 points in October. In addition, the index of Economic Expectations in Switzerland in September from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) fell from -56.3 points to -69.2 points.

The focus of investors today will be a block of data on the level of Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment in the euro area for September. Also, during the day statistics on the dynamics of inflation in Germany is expected to be released: the figure may accelerate sharply from 7.9% to 9.4% in September.

According to Bloomberg, the EU states intend to postpone the final decision on the issue of setting a price limit for Russian "black gold". Earlier it was predicted that the amendments could be part of another package of sanctions against the Russian economy, which is likely to target specific sectors such as aviation, as well as affect the export of technologies for industry. In particular, it was not possible to obtain unanimous approval of all EU member states: among those who expressed disagreement, Bloomberg names Cyprus and Hungary. Against this backdrop, the region's authorities are discussing other sanctions policy options against Russia, which include control over the supply of diamonds and a ban on the export of certain products made from steel and wood.

Resistance levels: 0.97, 0.975, 0.98, 0.985 | Support levels: 0.9600, 0.9534, 0.945, 0.94​

 

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USDCHF - Correction within the side channel

At the end of last week, the Swiss National Bank lifted the interest rate out of the negative zone. It raised it by 75 basis points, bringing it to 0.5% in response to inflation rising to 3.5%, recorded by statistics in August. Despite the measures taken, the regulator expects that the indicator will remain above 3% until the end of the year and will begin a gradual decline only in 2023. Due to high uncertainty in the global economy, officials have also adjusted their forecasts for GDP growth until the end of the year and now expect the figure to rise by 2% rather than 2.5%, as noted earlier.

The asset's price is correcting within the lateral corridor, declining towards the lower border on the daily chart. Technical indicators hold a buy signal, which has somewhat weakened due to a downward correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed a down bar in the buying zone.

Support levels: 0.9745, 0.962 | Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9965​

 

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ADAUSD - the token remains under pressure

The release of the Cardano Vasil network update made it more scalable and improved the convenience of working with smart contracts but could not provide serious support to the positions of ADA. Experts identify two main reasons that led to pressure on the token.

Firstly, modernization was postponed for a long time. Investors managed to factor in the positive effect of it into the price, and, accordingly, after the activation of the quote, they began a corrective decline. A similar technical picture was observed earlier after the release of Cardano Shelley and Alonzo forks. The tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve remains a long-term factor that puts pressure on the entire cryptocurrency sector: at the last meeting, the regulator again raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, bringing it to the range of 3.00–3.25%, and predicted its preservation for high levels over the next few years. Accordingly, the US currency may soon continue to strengthen against alternative assets, including digital ones.

The trading instrument fell below 0.4394 (Murrey [2/8]), which gives the prospect of further decline to 0.3906 (Murrey [0/8]), 0.3662 (Murrey [–1/8]). The key “bullish” level is 0.4638 (Murrey [3/8]), supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, upon the breakdown of which it will be possible to resume growth to 0.4882 (Murrey [4/8]) and 0.5127 (Murrey [5/8]). Technical indicators reflect that the downtrend is continuing: Bollinger bands and Stochastic are reversing downwards, while the MACD histogram is increasing in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 0.4638, 0.4882, 0.5127 | Support levels: 0.3906, 0.3662​

 

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AUDUSD - The pair is consolidating near 0.65​

Slight support for quotes at the end of the week is provided by macroeconomic statistics from Australia and China. The Chinese Manufacturing PMI from NBS in September increased from 49.4 points to 50.1 points, which was better than expected 49.6 points, but the Services PMI corrected from 52.6 points to 50.6 points, demonstrating decline more active than forecasts at the level of 52.0 points. Australian data indicated an increase in Private Sector Credit in August from 0.7% to 0.8% MoM and from 9.1% to 9.3% YoY.

In turn, the US currency is supported by macroeconomic statistics from the United States. The data released the day before confirmed the decline in the Annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the second quarter at the level of -0.6%. At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended September 23 decreased from 209 thousand to 193.0 thousand.

Analysts at Danske Bank point to the upside potential of the Australian dollar quotes due to the limited supply of liquefied natural gas, as Australia is one of the world's key producers of raw materials. At its September meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) adjusted interest rates by 50 basis points, and analysts are confident that there will be a similar increase next month, despite growing recession risks for the national economy. Given these factors, the Australian currency will continue to receive only minor support from the tightening of monetary policy by the regulator.

Resistance levels: 0.6572, 0.665, 0.67, 0.675 | Support levels: 0.645, 0.64, 0.632, 0.625​

 

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USDJPY - US dollar holds near its record highs

The American currency continues its moderate growth during the Asian session, again testing the psychological level of 145 for a breakout. The US dollar is in high demand among investors in anticipation of further tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. It is predicted that by the end of the year the regulator will make at least one more large increase in the indicator, and the adjustment can immediately reach 1.25%. In turn, the Bank of Japan does not change its wait-and-see tactics, as it fears the return of the previous deflationary risks.

The published macroeconomic statistics from Japan put additional pressure on the yen. Tankan Large Manufacturing Index in the third quarter showed a decrease from 9.0 points to 8.0 points, while analysts expected growth to 11.0 points, and the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI in September fell from 51points to 50.8 points with a forecast of 51.5 points.

US investors will be watching today for data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), which reflects the state of business activity in the national manufacturing industry and is calculated based on a survey of purchasing and supply managers of leading national enterprises in all industries. The indicator is projected to decrease from 52.8 points to 52.2 points. In addition, during the day there will be a number of speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve.

Resistance levels: 145, 146, 147, 148 | Support levels: 144, 142.54, 141.5, 140.78​

 

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AUDUSD - Trade in the range of 0.639 – 0.6525

The long-term trend is downward. As part of the decline, the traders reached a strong support level of 0.6390, and after an unsuccessful attempt to break through it, the AUDUSD pair corrected to the resistance area of 0.6525; however, the "bulls" failed to develop an upward impetus, forming a trading range of 0.6390–0.6525. The decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the interest rate, which is expected tomorrow at 05:30 (GMT+2), can take the trading instrument out of this zone.

The mid-term trend is downward. Last week the traders broke through the target zone 3 (0.6536–0.6516), and now the area of 0.6336–0.6316 serves as a new reference point for quotes. The key resistance of the trend is shifting to the levels of 0.6561–0.6543. If this resistance is reached within the upward correction, it will be possible to consider new short positions with the first target at last week's low at 0.6368.

Resistance levels: 0.6525, 0.67 | Support levels: 0.639, 0.626​

 

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NZDUSD - Candlestick analysis​

H4​

On the four-hour chart, there is a formation of a Double Bottom price pattern, which is reversal and indicates that the asset has reached a local Bottom. In addition, at the key support level of 0.5593, a Morning Star candlestick analysis pattern formed, which also signals that the "bulls" have seized the initiative, and at around 0.5653, a Hammer reversal pattern is formed. To continue the uptrend according to the Double Bottom pattern, the quotes need to test the level of 0.5653, after which, most likely, the asset will continue to recover by impulse movement to the resistance level of 0.5845, overcoming which will mean the retreat of the "bears" from their positions and continued movement to the zone of 0.6149−0.6379. An alternative scenario is possible if the sellers overcome the support level of 0.5593, then the negative dynamics may increase to the area of 0.5348−0.5022.

D1​

On the daily chart, at the level of 0.5653, there is the formation of a "bullish" Inverted Hammer pattern, which warns market participants about a possible price reversal, and the Hammer and Morning Star candlestick analysis patterns, the combination of which indicates the transition of the initiative to the "bulls". More likely at the moment is a scenario with the continuation of the uptrend to the resistance level of 0.5845, the overcoming of which will allow buyers to head higher in the range of 0.6149−0.6379.

Support levels: 0.5593, 0.5348, 0.5022 | Resistance levels: 0.5845, 0.6149, 0.6379​