Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: pair's prospects are negative

03/05/2018


Current dynamics

According to the research company IHS Markit, published today, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector in April was 52.8 (against 51.7 in March and the forecast of 53.5). A value above 50 indicates an increase in activity. Nevertheless, the PMI index of the services sector was another signal that the growth of the British economy at the beginning of the second quarter was restrained.

Earlier in the week, other disappointing macro data were published, pointing to the weak growth of the UK economy in April. So, the PMI index for the manufacturing sector, published on Tuesday, was the lowest for 17 months (53.9 against 54.8 on forecast and 54.9 in March).

As reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of Great Britain last week, the gross domestic product in the 1st quarter grew by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or 1.2% on an annualized basis (forecast was + 0.3% and +1 , 4%, respectively). Data suggest that GDP growth has slowed significantly; The UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.

Also worse than expected was the index of business activity in the service sector, the leading branch of the British economy, which accounts for the bulk of the country's GDP (+ 0.4% vs. 0.6% + 0.6% in February).

Low growth rates of the British economy reduce the likelihood of an increase in the key interest rate at the May meeting of the Bank of England, which will take place next week (May 10).

Against the backdrop of weak macro statistics, investors came to the conclusion that the rate hike could be postponed. Uncertainty about future ties between the UK and the EU persists, and economic data indicate a weak start this year. The head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, last month said that economic data indicate a weak beginning of the year and markets should not expect a rate hike in May.

The Fed meeting ended on Wednesday, on the contrary, pointed to the determination of the Fed and further to gradually raise the interest rate. In the comments to this decision, the central bank's leaders noted the acceleration of inflation in the US. The Fed's preferred inflation indicator, the price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE), in March showed an annual growth of 2%.

The dollar strengthened after the Fed meeting, and, despite its today's corrective decline, the dollar is likely to grow further, including against the pound.

"A too slow increase in rates will lead to the need to sharply tighten monetary policy at some point, jeopardizing GDP growth", Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month .The rise in inflation pressures could still force the Fed to tighten monetary policy faster pace, and this is a strong fundamental factor in favor of further strengthening of the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3600, 1.3535, 1.3400, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3615, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3640. Stop-Loss 1.3550. Take-Profit 1.3700, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400

Sell Stop 1.3550. Stop-Loss 1.3640. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

XAU/USD: Dollar is rising in price, gold becomes cheaper

04/05/2018

Current dynamics

Since the opening of today's trading day, the price of gold has resumed its decline amid the strengthening of the dollar. Spot gold prices in London fell by 0.2% to 1309.40 dollars per ounce. Since last month, gold prices have fallen by 0.2%.

At the same time, the dollar continues to strengthen. After reaching the current year's low in February, the WSJ dollar index, reflecting the value of the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, rose by more than 4%.

It is known that at the meeting which came to the end on Wednesday, the Fed confirmed intention to adhere to the plan for gradual tightening of monetary policy. The PCE personal consumption expenditure price index (the Fed's preferred inflation indicator) showed an annual growth of 2% in March. Tax cuts and increased government spending this year will help to strengthen domestic demand. The imposition of import duties would increase the cost of imports, which could also put pressure on inflation. Now many people are interested in how the Fed will act if inflation exceeds 2%.

"Too slow a rate hike will lead to the fact that at some point will need to sharply tighten monetary policy, putting at risk GDP growth”, - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last month.

According to the quotes of futures on interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of a rate hike in June at about 100%, and the probability of three more rate hikes this year at 50% (against 32% a month earlier).

On Thursday, another series of positive macro statistics on the United States was published. Among other things, it should be noted a significant relative decrease of foreign trade deficit of the United States (nearly $ 9 billion or 17%). This is a very positive development in favour of further strengthening the dollar.

Meanwhile, investors are watching the trade talks between the US and China, which will be held this week. USA gave China a long list of requirements from the immediate reduction of the imbalance in trade to 100 billion dollars a year to the suspending of support by the Chinese government advanced technologies. The US trade deficit with China last year amounted to $ 375 billion. US President Donald trump has repeatedly said about the need to reduce this figure by 100 billion dollars a year. In the document, the US demands that Beijing reduce its trade surplus by at least $ 200 billion by the end of 2020.

In addition, the US demands that Beijing guarantee that it will not take retaliatory measures against the United States under intellectual property disputes.

If the negotiations are successful, the dollar will probably growth up again.

Today, the focus of traders will be the publication of data from the US labor market at 12:30 (GMT). Strong performance is expected (the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy in April increased by 192 000 against +103 000 in March, and unemployment fell by 0.1% to 4.0%, to the lowest level in 18 months). In the short term, the dollar may react with restraint to the report from the labor market, since 3 rate hikes this year have already been included in the quotes. However, if the data will be better, the dollar will receive another strong support amid positive macro statistics coming in recent weeks from the United States. Probably, gold will continue to fall in price. At the same time, geopolitical risks will continue to "keep the tone" of gold buyers, and the demand for gold will resume with the next aggravation of the geopolitical or domestic political situation in the United States.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1305.00, 1295.00, 1277.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1313.00, 1318.00, 1327.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00, 1390.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1307.00. Stop-Loss 1319.00. Take-Profit 1305.00, 1295.00, 1277.00

Buy Stop 1319.00. Stop-Loss 1307.00. Take-Profit 1327.00, 1335.00, 1342.00, 1354.00, 1361.00, 1365.00, 1370.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: low interest rates are desirable

07/05/2018


Current dynamics

Last week, the central bank of Australia, as expected, left the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5%. According to the RBA Governor Philip Lowey, at present there are no arguments in favor of changing the RBA monetary policy.

On Tuesday, Philip Lowy said that "the low level of interest rates continues to support the Australian economy".

At the level of 1.5%, the RBA rate is already since the middle of 2016, and economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.

The RBA raised the forecast for core inflation by mid-2018 from 1.75% to 2.0%, to the lower limit of the RBA's target range of 2% -3%. At the same time, the RBA does not expect further growth in core inflation until June 2020.

On Friday, in the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement, the Reserve Bank of Australia revised upward its forecast for the unemployment rate. Now, given the negative dynamics of the Australian labor market from the beginning of 2018, the long-awaited increase in the RBA rate in the first half of 2019 may be in jeopardy.

Nevertheless, the situation in the Australian labor market remains a key factor in the prospects for raising the key interest rate of the country's central bank.

"The board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", the statement adds.

Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.

If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.

On Tuesday, investors will be attracted by the publication (09:30 GMT) of the Australian government's annual budget plan. The impact of this document on the market and on the quotations of the Australian dollar is high, because it can have a significant impact on the economy.

At the same time, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed in combination with strong economic data of the US supports the US dollar. Its growth, most likely, will continue in the short term.

The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD/USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7550, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000


Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7565. Take-Profit 0.7430, 0.7330, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7565. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7730, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: US stock indexes are falling before the speech of Donald Trump

08/05/2018


Current dynamics

Major US stock indexes are down on the eve of the speech of US President Donald Trump. On Monday, Trump wrote on Twitter that he would announce a decision on the Iranian nuclear agreement on Tuesday. The deadline for the adoption of this decision by the US expires on May 12.

Traders took a wait-and-see position before the decision of US President Donald Trump on the Iranian nuclear deal. If Trump still decides to withdraw from the agreement and the US restores economic sanctions against Iran, it will lead to a reduction in the supply of oil from Iran, reduce the world supply of oil and cause an increase in oil prices.

In this case, the Fed may begin to respond more acutely to consumer price growth, which is partly related to the expected increase in oil prices, and to raise interest rates faster than previously expected. This is a negative factor for stock indices, although the dollar will benefit from this.

The strengthening of inflationary pressures in the US can stimulate the Fed to further raise interest rates this year. According to the futures quotations for interest rates of the Fed, investors estimate the probability of four rate increases of 50% (against 32% a month earlier). In this case, the probability of an increase in the rate in June is estimated at 100%. Strong recent economic data from the US has strengthened investors' expectations about 4 Fed interest rate rises in 2018, despite the fact that the Fed is still signaling about 2 more rate hikes. Meanwhile, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds is 2.954%, which indicates the expected increase in inflation, and therefore, at a higher rate of tightening of the monetary policy of the Fed.

It is also necessary to take into account the impressive deficit of the US foreign trade balance and the federal budget deficit, which can be further aggravated against the backdrop of the new tax and economic policy of the White House and expectations of a significant increase in budget expenditures.

In recent weeks, the main US stock indices are hesitating in anticipation of the Fed's actions and trade negotiations between the US and China, which ended on Friday with nothing.

Negative dynamics of US stock indexes persists in the medium term, although in the long run, indices are still in a long-term bull trend.

Recall that the beginning of the performance of Donald Trump is scheduled for 18:00 (GMT).

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2650.0, 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0

Resistance levels: 2672.0, 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2640.0. Stop-Loss 2685.0. Objectives 2630.0, 2615.0, 2590.0, 2530.0, 2480.0

Buy Stop 2685.0. Stop-Loss 2640.0. Objectives 2712.0, 2785.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

Brent: the price tends to the marks around 80.00

10/05/2018

Current dynamics

According to official data released by the US Department of Energy on Wednesday, commercial oil reserves in this country fell by 2.197 million barrels last week (the forecast assumed a drop in stocks of only 0.719 million barrels). Gasoline inventories declined by 2.2 million barrels (forecasted decline is of only 0.4 million barrels), diesel fuel inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels against the expected drop of 1.4 million barrels.

This is a positive factor for oil prices. However, prices continue to grow, playing out the recent US decision to withdraw from the "nuclear deal" with Iran, as well as the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced the renunciation of the agreement on Iran's nuclear program, which means the resumption of sanctions against this country.

It is expected that the resumption of sanctions will lead to a reduction in Iran's oil production, a key member of OPEC, and a reduction in the world supply of oil.

Analysts of the oil market believe that the resumption of sanctions could lead to the withdrawal of Iranian oil from the world market and to a reduction in the world supply of oil by 700,000 barrels a day. Previously, the sanctions imposed on Iran in 2012 led to the withdrawal of about 1 million barrels of Iranian oil from the market.

At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.

Israeli forces struck at Iranian facilities in Syria after rockets were fired from Iranian military bases to the positions of the Israeli army in the Golan Heights. In addition, Iranian-backed Yemeni rebels on Wednesday launched rockets for Saudi Arabia.

On Thursday, July futures for Brent crude went up by 0.75% to 77.79 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude rose during the Asian session to 77.80, a new high since November 2014.

It is likely that oil prices will continue to rise, given geopolitical risks and possible interruptions in supplies from Iraq and Venezuela, as well as OPEC's intent to adhere to a plan to further limit oil production.

According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States increased oil production by 1.34 million barrels per day in comparison with last March, ranking second in the world for oil production after Russia, outstripping Saudi Arabia.

But even despite the growth in oil production in the US, the world oil supply will not be able to cover the demand in the current situation.

On Friday (at 17:00 GMT) a weekly report will be published from the American oil service company Baker Hughes on the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US. Their number almost weekly grows and at the moment is 834 units. The next growth of this indicator will be another negative factor for the oil market and positive - for oil prices. Probably, the price for Brent crude oil will try to break into the zone around $ 80 per barrel.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 77.00, 76.60, 76.00, 74.90, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70, 64.30, 63.20

Resistance levels: 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 75.80. Stop-Loss 77.20. Take-Profit 75.00, 74.00, 72.25, 70.40, 70.00, 69.80, 68.50, 66.70

Buy Stop 77.80. Stop-Loss 75.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00

Buy Limit 72.25. Stop Loss 70.00. Take-Profit 73.00, 74.00, 75.00, 76.00, 77.00, 78.00, 78.50, 79.00, 80.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/CAD: investors fix profit after growth of US dollar

11/05/2018


Current dynamics

After the Bank of Canada left the rate at the previous level of 1.25% in April, the Canadian dollar declined. The central bank is concerned about international trade conflicts and weaker economic expectations than expected.

"Despite the higher demand in the world economy, the growth of investment (Canadian) companies focused on exports will be limited by the increased uncertainty surrounding foreign trade and concerns about regulatory rules. In addition, after the tax reform in the United States, there is the question of likely investors switching to US assets", the central bank said.

Nevertheless, in recent days, the Canadian dollar has been receiving support from rising oil prices. Strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the decline in the USD / CAD will continue if the bull market continues to be present in the oil market.

So far, everything is in favor of further price increases after Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced the US withdrawal from the agreement on Iran's nuclear program. The unilateral exit of the US from the deal implies the resumption of sanctions against Iran and limiting of the Iranian oil on the world market, which is approximately 1 million barrels a day.

At 12:30 (GMT), the publication of data from the Canadian labor market is planned. It is expected that unemployment in Canada in April remained at 5.8%, and the number of employed increased by 17,400 people. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen, and the USD / CAD will decrease.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is declining from the opening of today's trading day. Investors continued to analyze yesterday's weak data on consumer inflation in the US. The growth in consumer price indices was less significant than economists had expected.

Data pointed to a possible slowdown in inflation, and this is a negative sign for the Fed in the matter of tightening monetary policy and the prospects for strengthening the US dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2765, 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200


Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1.2780. Take-Profit 1.2700, 1.2600, 1.2535, 1.2430, 1.2360, 1.2260, 1.2170

Buy Stop 1.2780. Stop-Loss 1.2720. Take-Profit 1.2805, 1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3130, 1.3200

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: investors are expecting for data from the UK labor market

14/05/2018


Current dynamics

As you know, last week the Bank of England retained the key interest rate at 0.50% without risking the weak recovery of the British economy, and also with the continuing of uncertainties regarding Brexit. The program for the purchase of stock assets by the Bank of England also remained unchanged at the level of 435 billion pounds sterling a year.

The Bank of England also lowered its forecast for GDP for 2018 from 1.75% to 1.40%.

In early May, disappointing macro data were published, indicating a weak growth in the UK economy in April. The PMI index for the manufacturing sector turned out to be the lowest for 17 months (53.9 against 54.8 under forecasts and 54.9 in March). Gross domestic product in the 1st quarter increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter, or by 1.2% year-on-year (the forecast was + 0.3% and + 1.4%, respectively). Thus, GDP growth has slowed significantly; The UK economy in the first quarter of 2018 grew at a slower pace in more than five years.

Slowing down the rate of inflation also caused the Bank of England leaders to refrain from raising the interest rate. So, the consumer price index pointed out that the annual inflation in the UK in March slowed from 2.7% to 2.5%.

On Tuesday, the focus of traders will be data from the British labor market, including data on employment and wages, which will be published at 08:30 (GMT). If the data here also prove to be weak, then the prospect of an increase in the rate in August will be postponed for an even later period. Although, some economists expect that the Bank of England can still go on raising rates in August or November.

The Bank of England's propensity for a softer monetary policy amid the Federal Reserve's intention to gradually raise the interest rate makes the pound vulnerable to the dollar and leads to a further decline in the GBP / USD.

As stated on Monday by the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and FOMC member Loretta Mester, "it is advisable to continue tightening monetary policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability". In her opinion, "fiscal policy turns from limiting to stimulating, the growth rate of the economy exceeds trend, and investments are increasing, so the neutral interest rate is also likely to grow".

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3535, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210

Resistance levels: 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3710, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.3625. Stop-Loss 1.3530. Take-Profit 1.3710, 1.3740, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4045, 1.4100, 1.4190, 1.4300, 1.4340, 1.4400

Sell Stop 1.3530. Stop-Loss 1.3625. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3465, 1.3400, 1.3300, 1.3210

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/CHF: the dynamics of the pair is determined, basically, by the strengthening of the dollar

15/05/2018

Current dynamics

As reported by the Swiss Federal Bureau of Statistics this morning, the import price and producer prices index rose by 0.4% in April (+ 2.7% in annual terms), mainly due to higher oil and equipment prices. The forecast was +0.3% and + 3.0%, respectively.

This has not yet led to an increase in consumer prices; annual consumer inflation in Switzerland is 0.8%. Nevertheless, the current weakening of the Swiss franc and the increase in producer prices can increase inflationary pressures and provoke the acceleration of consumer inflation in the coming months.

This, on the one hand, can contribute to changing the NBS rhetoric about the current monetary policy. On the other hand, the NBS already almost traditionally considers the franc overbought and conducts an extra-soft monetary policy aimed at reducing the relative value of the franc.

As you know, in mid-March, the Swiss National Bank left its negative interest rates unchanged. The deposit rate remained at the level of -0.75%, the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate also remained unchanged, between -1.25% and -0.25%. The NBS traditionally stated that the franc rate is still too high, which indicates that the NBS still intends to keep rates in the negative territory.

"The bank still considers it necessary to have a negative interest rate and is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it", the NBS said.

At the moment, the USD / CHF reached the levels of October-November last year, near the mark 1.0030, from which the weakening of the pair began. Beginning in February, when the USD / CHF reached its 3-year lows near the 0.9200 mark, then the pair almost weekly grew.

During this period, the dynamics of the USD / CHF was determined, basically, by a large-scale strengthening of the dollar.

A cheap franc is beneficial to Swiss exporters. It will be interesting now to listen to the opinion of the head of the NBS, Thomas Jordan, about the current weakening of the franc. Will his performance strengthen the franc and reduce the USD / CHF from current levels, or the NBS will be tolerant of further weakening of the franc and the growth of the pair USD / CHF to the resistance level of 1.0300. From this level twice in the last 3 years (in November 2015 and December 2016) another wave of USD / CHF decline began.

Speech by Thomas Jordan is scheduled for Wednesday (16:00 GMT).

So far, the difference in the direction of monetary policy in the US and Switzerland is the most important argument in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CHF.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.9965, 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610

Resistance levels: 1.0030, 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 1.0040. Stop-Loss 0.9960. Take-Profit 1.0060, 1.0100, 1.0300

Sell Stop 0.9960. Stop-Loss 1.0040. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9875, 0.9815, 0.9745, 0.9690, 0.9640, 0.9610

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

Brent: the positive dynamics will be preserved, despite the current correction

16/05/2018

Current dynamics

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in crude oil inventories in the US for the week of +4.854 million barrels. Nevertheless, this information almost did not affect the quotations of oil, futures for which increased by 35 cents, to 71.31 dollars per barrel following the results of trades on Nymex.

The spot price for Brent crude at the end of the trading day on Tuesday was near the mark of 77.90, after rising to new annual highs near the 79.25 dollars per barrel in the middle of the trading day.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday, oil reserves in advanced economies fell to a three-year low.

In its monthly report, which closely follows the markets, the IEA reported a reduction in oil reserves in the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in March compared to the previous month by 26.8 million barrels, to 62.819 billion barrels. This level is 1 million barrels below the 5-year average, which is used by participants to assess the process of market rebalancing. The efforts of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to level the world's excess supply, which has put pressure on the oil market since the end of 2014, is bearing fruit.

Since the entry into force of the OPEC agreement, oil reserves in the OECD countries have fallen by 233 million barrels. As you know, OPEC and 10 oil-producing countries outside the cartel, including Russia, from the beginning of last year reduce the total oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day.

The market is also supported by geopolitical risks. Iran is the third largest OPEC oil producer, and in the past sanctions limited Iranian oil exports by about 1 million barrels a day. If the US now restores sanctions against the Islamic Republic (currently Iran exports about 2.4 million barrels a day), it will reduce OPEC's total production and further reduce the global supply.

At the moment, pressure on oil quotations towards further price increases is also exacerbated by the situation in the Middle East, which can lead to interruptions in the supply of oil from Asia.

Nevertheless, oil prices have so far suspended growth and declined from the highs for three and a half years on signs that the oil rally is beginning to weaken the growth in demand.

In the monthly report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the forecast for growth in oil demand in 2018 was reduced to 1.4 million barrels per day against the previous estimate of 1.5 million barrels per day, including because of a significant price increase.

In the current year, Brent oil prices have increased by about 17%, and since 2016 prices have increased by approximately 2.6 times.

On Wednesday (at 14:30 GMT), the Ministry of Energy will provide official data on oil and petroleum products in the US. The stock is expected to decline by -0.763 million barrels, which will positively affect oil prices while confirming the forecast.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40, 72.00, 70.40, 70.00, 66.90, 64.80, 63.30, 58.00

Resistance levels: 78.50, 79.30, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 76.80. Stop-Loss 78.60. Take-Profit 76.00, 75.60, 75.00, 74.40, 73.40

Or Buy Limit 77.00, 75.60, 74.40, 73.40. Stop-Loss 72.80. Take-Profit 78.00, 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

Buy Stop 78.60. Stop-Loss 76.80. Take-Profit 79.00, 80.00, 90.00, 100.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: downward dynamics prevails

17/05/2018


Current dynamics

As reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday, the unemployment rate in April was 5.6% after 5.5% in March (the forecast was 5.5%). Nevertheless, other articles of the report were more positive, and the Australian currency strengthened. Thus, the number of jobs increased by 22,600 against the expected 20,000, the number of full-time jobs increased in April by 32,700, and the number of part-time jobs dropped by 10,000. Meanwhile, the proportion of economically active population in Australia in April was 65.6% after 65.5% in March and compared with the forecast of 65.5%.

Published on Wednesday, data showed that the growth rate of wages in Australia remained near the record low in the first three months of this year. Wage growth in Australia in the first quarter of 2018 was + 2.1% (in annual terms). The Reserve Bank of Australia pays much attention to this indicator when deciding on the interest rate. Low wage growth rates may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to not change interest rates for a longer period of time.

Since mid-2016, the RBA's key rate is at a record low of 1.5%.

Deputy Governor of the RBA Debell said that interest rates will not be raised until consumers' incomes rise. Economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.

"The Board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term", - said in one of the latest statements of the RBA.

Economists also warn that due to the weakness of the housing market and the continuing weakening of housing prices in major cities, the RBA will not change rates until 2020.

If pressure on housing prices increases, it will undermine consumer confidence and lead to a slowdown in economic growth. And this, in turn, suggests a possibility of a decrease, rather than an increase in interest rates.

In general, the negative dynamics of the AUD / USD pair remains. The US dollar receives support from the growing yield of 10-year US government bonds, which reached a new high of 3.122% on Thursday.

The different focus of monetary policy of central banks in the US and Australia will be the main most important long-term factor in favor of weakening the AUD / USD pair.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155

Resistance levels: 0.7565, 0.7595, 0.7655, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000


Trading Scenarios

Sell on the market. Stop-Loss 0.7570. Take-Profit 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7330, 0.7155

Buy Stop 0.7570. Stop-Loss 0.7490. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7655, 0.7690, 0.7715, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com