Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: the activity of traders is minimal before NFP

01/06/2018


Current dynamics

The volume of consumer lending in the UK in April rose sharply after a period of weakness in March.

The data published on Thursday pointed to the strongest growth in unsecured consumer lending for almost 18 months. Unsecured consumer lending jumped to 1.8 billion pounds in April after falling to 400 million British pounds in March.

This signal can affect the Bank of England and convince in the need to raise the key interest rate in the coming months.

On Friday, the pound gained additional support after the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector, which in May exceeded the forecast of 53.5, to 54.4, was published at the beginning of the European session.

The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the last year of the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.

After the publication of the data, the pound strengthened, and the GBP / USD pair increased by 30 points relative to the opening price of today.

Meanwhile, the US dollar is trading almost unchanged, while investors are preparing to the publishing of important economic report at the end of the week.

The dollar index DXY, reflecting its value against the other 6 major currencies, today declined slightly at the beginning of the European session, to 93.95, after it reached its next annual maximum of 94.98 on Tuesday.

At 12:30 (GMT), the US Department of Labor will report on the most important indicators of the labor market in the US in May (Average hourly wage / Number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector / Unemployment rate). Forecast: + 0.2% (against + 0.1% in April) / 188 000 (against 164 000 in April) / 3.9% (against 3.9% in April), respectively.

In general, the indicators can be called strong. If they coincide with the forecast or come out better, then this will have a positive effect on the USD.

Strong data will strengthen the likelihood of four Fed rate increases this year. In this case, the investment attractiveness of the dollar will grow.

According to some leaders of the Fed, "it is advisable to continue to tighten monetary and credit policy in order to avoid increasing risks for macroeconomic stability".

Thus, the different focus of the monetary policy of central banks in the UK and the US, as well as the uncertainty about Brexit, will further reduce the GBP / USD.

However, if the data prove to be worse than the forecast or market participants find the report on the labor market weak, then the dollar will inevitably fall.

In any case, it is often difficult to predict the market reaction to the publication of indicators. Often, a strong move to the one side should be followed by an equally strong rollback to the other side, since the data published earlier is often revised.

Probably the most successful trading position today will be to stay out of the market, at least, in this period of time.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3350. Take-Profit 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050

Buy Stop 1.3350. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3390, 1.3460, 1.3580, 1.3620

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: despite corrective growth, downward dynamics predominate

04/06/2018


Current dynamics

According to data released by the US Department of Labor on Friday, the number of jobs outside agriculture increased by 223,000 in May (forecast was +188,000), while unemployment fell to 3.8 percent, the lowest level since 1969.

The number of jobs in the US has been growing for 92 months in a row, which is the longest such period in the history of such statistics.

The growth in demand for labor should positively affect wages, which are still growing at a moderate pace. The average hourly earnings in the US in May grew by 2.7% (in annual terms).

The US dollar recovered with support for strong employment data for May, which made it more likely to accelerate the rate of interest rate increase in the coming months.

The probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 2.0% at a meeting to be held June 12-13 is almost 100%, according to the CME Group.

However, more interest for investors will be represented by the text of the Fed's accompanying statement about the prospects of monetary policy and the probability of more accelerated rates of its tightening. 3 planned Fed rate increases this year are already taken into account in the quotes of the US dollar.

If the Fed signals about a high probability of 4 rate increases this year, then the dollar's growth will resume.

Meanwhile, there is a decline in the US dollar after its growth on Friday against the backdrop of strong data from the US labor market.

The Trump administration does not show signs of concern about the possible start of a trade war. "When the deficit of foreign trade is almost 800 billion dollars a year, one can not afford to lose a trade war", Trump wrote on his twitter page on Saturday. "The USA has been ripped off by other countries for years, it's time to take on the mind," he added.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar received support in the morning from the publication of positive macro statistics, according to which, retail sales in Australia in April rose by 0.4% (forecast was + 0.2%), companies' profit in Australia in the 1st quarter increased to + 5.9% (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 2.8% in the previous quarter).

Nevertheless, key indicators such as the Australian labor market and consumer incomes remain weak.

So, the unemployment rate in Australia is 5.6% (in March this level was 5.5%), and the growth rate of salaries in Australia remain near record lows. Thus, the growth of wages in Australia in the first quarter of 2018 amounted to + 2.1% (in annual terms). The Reserve Bank of Australia pays much attention to this indicator when deciding on the interest rate.

Low wage growth rates may prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to not change interest rates for a longer period of time.

On Tuesday (01:30 GMT), the RBA takes a decision on the rate, which since mid-2016 is at a record low level of 1.5%. Deputy Governor of the RBA Debell said that interest rates will not be raised until consumers' incomes rise.

Economists believe that the first increase will take place only in 2019. However, interest rates may remain unchanged for an even longer time, given the weak wage growth and the slowdown in the Australian economy.

It is likely that on Tuesday the rate will remain at the same level of 1.5%.

"The Board does not see any weighty arguments in favor of adjusting the key interest rate in the short term," - said in one of the latest statements of the RBA.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7575, 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7300

Resistance levels: 0.7655, 0.7700, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 0.7640. Stop-Loss 0.7710. Take-Profit 0.7600, 0.7575, 0.7500, 0.7410, 0.7300

Buy Stop 0.7710. Stop-Loss 0.7640. Take-Profit 0.7750, 0.7820, 0.7900, 0.8000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

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[Tifia FX]

COMMERCIAL POSTING UNRELATED TO MARKET PREDICTIONS AND REPORTS DELETED

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: The British economy is recovering

05/06/2018


Current dynamics

Published at the beginning of today's European session, positive macro data on the UK services sector, supported the pound. According to the research company IHS Markit, the index of supply managers (PMI) for the UK services sector increased to 54.0 in May from 52.8 in April (the forecast was 53.0), reaching the highest level in three months. The values of the index above 50 indicate an increase in activity.

Activity in the services sector in the UK increased in May, which was another signal for the country's economic recovery after weakening at the beginning of the year. On Friday, a similar report was submitted for the UK manufacturing sector, which also indicated an acceleration of activity in May. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector. As this sector forms a significant part of the final indicator of the UK GDP, the PMI production index is an important indicator of the business environment and the general state of the British economy. The figure above the 50 mark is a positive (or bullish) factor for GBP. The production PMI came out on Friday with the value for May 54.4 (the forecast was 53.5, and 53.9 in April). The production growth accelerated to the highest level in the current year against the backdrop of the strongest growth in inventories over the entire 26-year history of observations and a sharp reduction in outstanding orders.

The services sector and the manufacturing sector of the economy form the bulk of the UK GDP. Growth in these sectors indicates a positive trend and the restoration of the British economy, despite the continuing uncertainty of Brexit. There is less than a year left before the end of Brexit.

Many economists believe that signs of recovery in the second quarter may increase the likelihood of further tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England in the coming months, perhaps even in August.

So, one of the nine members of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, Silvano Tenreiro, said last Monday that it expects "several" increases in the cost of borrowing by mid-2012, although the exact terms for each of them is "an open question".

The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors will monitor the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.

The next important data on inflation, which may affect the determination of the Bank of England to raise the rate in the coming months, will come later this week.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3337, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3050

Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3970, 1.4000


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3325. Stop-Loss 1.3395. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3050

Buy Stop 1.3395. Stop-Loss 1.3325. Take-Profit 1.3460, 1.3575, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3970

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: this year the ECB can curtail the large-scale program QE

06/06/2018


Current dynamics

According to the chief economist of the ECB, Peter Pret, the ECB is close to achieving the conditions under which it is possible to complete the program of buying bonds. According to Pret, the Eurozone labor market is strengthening. The unemployment rate is declining, and this accelerates the growth of wages, which is becoming a key condition for stronger inflation, the target level of which is just below 2%.

Now, as part of the quantitative easing program, the central bank buys assets at 30 billion euros a month and will continue to purchase at least until September.

Since the beginning of the current week, the Euro has been growing on the information that at a meeting on June 12 the ECB may discuss an exit from the quantitative easing program.

At the end of last week, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, Sabine Lautenschlager, said that the ECB could decide at the June meeting to close the asset purchase program later this year.

Peter Pret signaled on Wednesday that the central bank's leaders are increasingly confident in the return of inflation in the Eurozone to the target level amidst the strength of the economy and the growth of salaries. This means that this year the bank can curtail a large-scale asset purchase program.

Nevertheless, more conservative investors believe that the growth of the euro will be limited, even if at a meeting on June 12 the ECB will signal the completion of the QE program. As ECB President Mario Draghi previously said, interest rates will remain near zero for a long time, even if the quantitative easing program is curtailed.

And it is this issue that will be decisive in determining the direction of the further movement of the euro and the EUR / USD.

Later on Wednesday, the attention of market participants will switch to publication (at 12:30 GMT) of important macro statistics from the US, including data on the foreign trade balance for April. In the last month, the US trade deficit narrowed from -57.6 billion dollars to -49 billion dollars. If the data again indicates the growth of the deficit, the dollar may fall. In any case, at the time of publication of macro data, volatility in currency pairs with the dollar, including in the EUR / USD, can significantly increase.

Before the meetings of the ECB and the Fed next week, investors will attach great importance to macro data.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.1755, 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520

Resistance levels: 1.1790, 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1730. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1695, 1.1660, 1.1630, 1.1570, 1.1520

Buy Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1730. Take-Profit 1.1860, 1.1900, 1.1935, 1.2000

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/CAD: the uptrend remains in force

07/06/2018


Current dynamics

At the end of last week, as expected, the Bank of Canada did not begin to change the interest rate, leaving it at 1.25%. As Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Lawrence Schembri said earlier last month, the Bank of Canada "has to hedge itself because of the uncertainty surrounding NAFTA negotiations". The uncertainty associated with the prolongation or amendment of the terms of the NAFTA negatively affects the quotes of the Canadian currency.

In addition, since June 1, US import duties on steel and aluminum (25% and 10%, respectively), including those supplied from Canada, have come into effect.

Last Thursday, Canadian Prime Minister Jasin Trudeau announced a response to the United States duties. The total value of imports from the US, which will be subject to new duties, is 16.6 billion Canadian dollars (12.8 billion US dollars). This corresponds to the value of Canada's exports to the US for 2017. This is the strongest response measures that the country has decided to apply since the Second World War.

Weaker oil prices also put pressure on CAD. The Canadian economy largely depends on the export of raw materials, primarily oil and oil products. The largest partner of Canada and the buyer of Canadian oil are the United States.

On Thursday (15:15 GMT), the speech of the head of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz will begin. He will explain the bank's position and assess the current economic situation in the country. If the tone of Stephen Poloz's speech is tough with respect to the monetary policy of the Bank of Canada, the Canadian dollar will strengthen on the foreign exchange market. If Stephen Poloz expresses his support for maintaining soft monetary policy, the Canadian currency will decline. In any case, during the speech of Stephen Poloz high volatility in trading on the Canadian dollar is expected.

Investors also want to hear the opinion of Poloz about NAFTA's prospects and regarding Canada's counter measures after the introduction of US import duties on steel and aluminum.

Also, the dynamics of the Canadian dollar could be affected by the publication on Friday (12:30 GMT) of data on the Canadian labor market for May.

Unemployment in April was 5.8%. In the case of rising unemployment and a decrease in the number of employed, the Canadian dollar will decline. If the data prove to be better than the forecast, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. However, the impact of this publication on the dynamics of USD / CAD will be short-term, and the upward trend of the pair USD / CAD in the current situation is likely to continue.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.2937, 1.2900, 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740, 1.2600, 1.2550

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2910. Stop-Loss 1.2975. Take-Profit 1.2875, 1.2790, 1.2740

Buy Stop 1.2975. Stop-Loss 1.2910. Take-Profit 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3080, 1.3130, 1.3200, 1.3450

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: the focus of traders - meeting G7

08/06/2018


Current dynamics

The focus of traders at the end of the week is the G7 meeting. Leaders of the G-7 countries are due to meet in Québec on Friday for a two-day meeting, during which the issues of trade relations will be discussed after the introduction of the US import duties on steel and aluminum.

As is known, since June 1, import duties on steel and aluminum imported from the EU, Canada, and Mexico have started to operate in the United States. Steel and aluminum from other countries are subject to import duty (25% and 10%, respectively) as early as March.

At the end of May, G7 finance ministers held a meeting in Canada, following which a public protest was issued against the introduction of new import duties on steel and aluminum. The European Union is ready to introduce counter restrictions of € 6.4 billion, Canada - $ 12.8 billion. Nevertheless, the White House insists on continuing pressure on trading partners. "When the foreign trade deficit is almost 800 billion dollars a year, one can not afford to lose a trade war", Trump wrote on his Twitter page on Saturday. "The US has been ripped off by other countries for years, it's time to start thinking", he added.

French President Macron said on Thursday that due to the recently announced US steel and aluminum duties against the EU and Canada, the remaining six members of the G-7 will have to unite in their own strength. Prime Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau said that he will remain faithful to the interests of Canadian citizens, even if this entails contradictions between neighbors. To this Trump replied on Twitter: "Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging huge fees and imposing non-tariff restrictions on the United States".

Many investors believe that the tension in trade issues will increase the restless situation in the stock markets.

The yield of 10-year US government bonds fell to 2,915% today from 2,933%. The demand for asylum assets - yen, franc, gold - is again growing.

World stock markets on Friday are falling amid growing tension in trade on the eve of an important G7 summit.

It is likely that up to the end of today's trading day, stock indices in Europe and the US will remain under pressure.

Nevertheless, the bullish trend of the US stock market so far remains in force.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2745.0, 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0, 2530.0

Resistance levels: 2780.0, 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0, 2900.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2740.0. Stop-Loss 2785.0. Objectives 2716.0, 2673.0, 2640.0, 2630.0

Buy Stop 2785.0. Stop-Loss 2740.0. Objectives 2800.0, 2829.0, 2877.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

DJIA: activity of traders is low before important events

13/06/2018

Current dynamics

After Tuesday's meeting between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un, and also in anticipation of the outcome of the meetings of the central banks of the US and the Eurozone, the world stock indices retain a restrained-positive dynamic.

It is widely expected that today the Fed will raise the key interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 1.75% -2%. The probability of such an increase is estimated by investors at 94%. This scenario is already included in the prices. Investors will be concerned with the question of how many more increases the Fed can make before the end of the year - one or two. The decision on the rates of the Fed will be published at 18:00 (GMT), and at 18:30 a press conference will begin at which the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will explain the decision taken by the Fed, and also express the opinion of the FRS leadership on the prospects for economic growth in the US.

Published on Tuesday, the data again pointed to the steady strengthening of inflation in the US, which should convince the Fed to further gradually increase interest rates. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.8% compared to the same period last year. Thus, last month the annual price increase was the strongest since February 2012.

The labor market in the US remains stable, and unemployment reached 3.8% in May, the lowest level since 1969. The last time the unemployment rate was 3.8% was recorded in April 2000. The average hourly earnings in the US in May rose by 0.3% (against the forecast of + 0.2% and + 0.1% in April) and by 2.7% (in annual terms).

The US economy continues to grow more confident than others, the macroeconomic situation in the US remains favorable, indicating that it is possible to raise rates after today's meeting more than once.

Market participants will closely follow Powell's speech to catch signals about the Fed's tougher position on monetary policy. If Powell unequivocally signals about the possibility of 4 rate increases this year, then the dollar can become sharply stronger. But the stock indices can again turn to the "south".

Investors also do not forget about the risks and threats that have emerged against the backdrop of escalating trade contradictions between the US and major trade and economic partners, such as China, the EU, Canada.

Thus, the monetary policy of central banks, as well as the threat of escalation of trade wars, will be the main driver in the financial markets in the short term.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 25240.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0

Resistance levels: 25425.0, 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 25430.0. Stop-Loss 25200.0. Take-Profit 25750.0, 26300.0, 26620.0

Sell Stop 25200.0. Stop-Loss 25430.0. Take-Profit 25000.0, 24800.0, 24425.0, 24050.0, 23750.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: rate hike could happen in August

14/06/2018


Current dynamics

Published on Wednesday, disappointing inflation data contributed to the weakening of the pound and the fall of the GBP / USD. The consumer price index (CPI) in May grew by 2.4% compared to the same period of the previous year, as in April.

The published data indicate that inflationary pressure in the UK remains, despite the restrained growth of wages. The leadership of the Bank of England, headed by Mark Carney, has repeatedly signaled that it expects two or three increases in borrowing costs in the UK over the next two years in order to bring inflation back to a 2% target.

The inflation report released on Wednesday may strengthen expectations for another small increase in borrowing costs, as the data signals that inflationary pressures are on the rise. Growth in company sales prices accelerated in May for the first time in six months. The producer price index rose by 2.9% compared to the same period of the previous year, after rising by 2.5% in April.

On Thursday, strong retail sales data was released, which pushed the pound up.

Compared to May of the previous year, retail sales in May grew by 3.9%. Compared to the previous month, sales increased by 1.3%, although they were projected to increase by only 0.3%. In April, retail sales grew by 1.6%.

On published data and after yesterday's decision of the Fed to raise rates the GBP / USD rose by 70 points from the opening of the trading day.

The next meeting of the Bank of England, dedicated to monetary policy, is scheduled for June 21. And now investors are watching the data, which may allow the central bank to hint at raising rates this year.

Economists expect that the next rate increase may occur in August.

In anticipation of this decision of the Bank of England, the pound may continue to strengthen, including in the GBP / USD.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3380, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3000

Resistance levels: 1.3490, 1.3560, 1.3650, 1.3800, 1.3980, 1.4000


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3370. Stop-Loss 1.3450. Take-Profit 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3000

Buy Stop 1.3450. Stop-Loss 1.3370. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3560, 1.3620, 1.3800, 1.3980

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com