Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

USD/CHF: the dollar shows a large-scale decline

23/11/2017

Current dynamics

After yesterday (19:00 GMT) minutes from the November meeting of the Fed were published, the dollar collapsed throughout the currency market. Although, in general, the protocols continued to testify to the Fed's commitment to further tightening monetary policy, there was something new in the rhetoric of the Fed's statements, which alarmed investors. Fed executives said that interest rates in December will be increased by 0.25%, however, they are not sure about the reasons for maintaining sluggish inflation. This, according to investors, can slow down the pace of monetary tightening in the coming year.

The uncertainty about the Fed's leadership regarding the inflation forecast calls into question the vigorous pace of tightening monetary policy in the US. Earlier, it was announced about 3, and according to some information, 4 rate increases in 2018, starting already in March.

As a result, yesterday the index of the dollar WSJ fell by 0.8% after the release of the minutes of the Fed meeting, and today the decline in the dollar continues against the backdrop of low trading volumes. The US and Japanese stock markets are closed today on the occasion of the holidays.

On the Eurozone today, positive macro statistics emerged, which caused the euro to rise, including against the dollar, provoking additional pressure on the dollar.

The dollar fell strongly against safe haven assets, such as gold, yen, franc. Concerning the dynamics of the franc, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the Head of the National Bank of Switzerland, Thomas Jordan, scheduled for today (16:30 GMT).

The Swiss National Bank is pursuing an extra soft monetary policy, trying to disperse inflation in the country and supporting Swiss producers supplying their products for export. To disperse inflation, which is at a record low 0.7%, and lower, the NBS prints huge amounts of francs and uses them to buy foreign shares and bonds. From Thomas Jordan, traders will be waiting for signals about further plans for monetary policy of the National Bank. If he again traditionally declares his adherence to the course of the central bank, then the franc can react with a decrease, including against the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


The negative dynamics is prevailing.

In the event of a breakdown of the support level of 0.9800, the targets for the decline will be support levels of 0.9775 (Fibonacci level of 38.2% of the upward correction to the last global decline wave since December 2016 and from the level of 1.0300), 0.9730 (EMA144, EMA200, bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart).

Support levels: 0.9800, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445

Resistance levels: 0.9840, 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000


Trading Scenarios

Buy Stop 0.9840. Stop-Loss 0.9790. Take-Profit 0.9875, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Sell Stop 0.9790. Stop-Loss 0.9840. Take-Profit 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: The dollar is recovering, but continues to decline against the euro

24/11/2017

Current dynamics

The third day, the EUR / USD is growing and at the beginning of today's European session again reached the level of 1.1875 (last month's highs). The growth of the pair is facilitated by the sharp weakening of the dollar after the publication of the protocol from the November meeting of the Fed, and the strengthening of the euro against the background of positive macro data on the Eurozone, published on Thursday and Friday.

Today we received information about the growth of business optimism in Germany in November.

The German IFO index reached a new record high of 117.5 (against the forecast of 116.6 and 116.8 in October), the index of expectations in Germany rose to 111.0 in November (against the forecast of 108.9 and 109.2 last month).

The economy of Germany, which is the leading economy of the Eurozone, ranked 4th in the world in terms of GDP, is moving towards a boom. Among the leaders of the Fed there is uncertainty about the rate of inflation, which may somewhat reduce investors' optimism about future increases in rates in the US. At the same time, in the minutes of the ECB meeting published on Thursday, it was said about the proposal of some leaders in the guidelines for the future policy of the ECB - not to link the quantitative easing program to the steady growth of inflation.

According to economists, this is a key factor, since it "implies the possibility of completing the program for the purchase of assets in 2018, even if there are no clear signs of accelerating inflation."

The dollar is now attempting to recover from a large-scale decline the day before and is rising against commodity currencies and the yen. Nevertheless, the dollar is falling against the euro.

A number of positive macro data on the Eurozone, received in the last two days, more than offset political uncertainty in Germany, where the ruling conservative party of Angela Merkel, was in the minority after the German chancellor failed to form a coalition with other opposition parties.

In the US today, a shorter working day after Thanksgiving and in view of "Black Friday", when the Christmas sales period starts, and in retail trade huge discounts.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of important macro data from the US, when at 14:45 (GMT) the indexes of business activity in various sectors of the US economy for November will be published, as well as the composite PMI index. The growth of indicators with values above 50 is expected, which is seen as evidence of economic growth.

If the indices are above the forecast values, the dollar will continue to recover. In the second half of the US trading session, the activity of traders will decline, and the volume of trading will be insignificant.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts are on the buyers side. Positive dynamics persists. Nevertheless, the likelihood of a downward correction is also high, if strong macro data comes from the US (at 14:45 GMT).

Support levels: 1.1848, 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430


Trading recommendations

Sell Stop 1.1840. Stop-Loss 1.1885. Take-Profit 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1740, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1570, 1.1470, 1.1285

Buy Stop 1.1885. Stop-Loss 1.1840. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

Brent: on the eve of the OPEC meeting

27/11/2017

Current dynamics

The large-scale weakening of the dollar is reflected not only in the financial markets, but also in the commodity market, including the oil market.

Oil prices have been rising for the fifth consecutive month. During today's Asian session, the price of Brent crude slightly decreased. Futures for Brent crude fell down in price by 0.02%, to 63.85 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to $ 63.20 per barrel, which is about 0.14 dollars lower than the opening price of today's trading day.

Nevertheless, the positive dynamics persists. This week the market will wait for the decision of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on the further fate of the production reduction deal.

The meeting of OPEC and a number of countries outside the cartel, including Russia, will be held on Thursday in Vienna. Participants will hope for an extension of the agreements to reduce oil production to the end of 2018.

If there is no extension of the deal, then this can alert investors, and the prices in this case may drop sharply.

In the event of a positive outcome of the meeting and the extension of the deal, prices may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and go up to the area of $ 70.

As the oil minister of the UAE said earlier this month, "there is the potential for extending the deal to cut production in order to reduce the excess in the market." "We are not satisfied that the price of oil for the year increased from 40 to 64 dollars per barrel, and we will discuss the terms of the extension of the agreement", the minister added.

Saudi Arabia is extremely interested in higher world oil prices for a more profitable IPO of state-owned company Saudi Aramco, which is the largest oil company in the world.

An upward trend in oil prices may also be linked to the risks of a possible production disruption in Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

Nevertheless, the negative impact on prices will be provided by the growing production of shale oil in the US, which will create a new inflow of oil to the market.

After a decline in recent months due to hurricanes over the US, the number of oil rigs in the US increased by nine units last week to 747 units, according to Baker Hughes. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). So, American oil companies still have a significant prospect for growth and increase in production. This will become one of the main negative factors. However, further price increases, perhaps, can not be avoided if the agreement to reduce production on Thursday will be extended.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


So far, a strong positive impulse of a fundamental nature remains in force, and long positions are preferred.

Support levels: 62.90, 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Resistance levels: 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00


Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.55, 55.00

Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.45, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/JPY: The dollar is trying to recover

28/11/2017

Current dynamics

"I think that the agreement (between the government and the Bank of Japan on the target inflation rate of 2%) remains in force, and I do not see any need to change anything", Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said today in a speech to members of the parliamentary committee. "I expect that the Bank of Japan will adhere to the mitigation policy in order to achieve the target level of inflation", he said. At the meeting of the same parliamentary committee, the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda spoke in support of the current soft monetary policy.

These statements were made at a time when market participants expect that the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest-rate targets in the near future to ease the collateral effect of the aggressive easing of monetary policy.

This has become one of the factors of strengthening the yen, including against the dollar, this month.

Expectations for changes in the direction of extra soft policy of the Bank of Japan stopped this month the growth of the Japanese stock index Nikkei Stock Average. This year, the Nikkei index grew by 18%, with almost the growth coming in the period after the beginning of September. Nikkei Stock Average reached a peak this month near the mark of 23400.00 amid the strengthening of shares of export-oriented companies and the victory of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party in the parliamentary elections held in Japan last month. Nikkei Stock Average set a record for the duration of continuous growth (8 consecutive weeks). However, the index subsequently declined amid expectations of a change in the policy of quantitative and qualitative easing by the Bank of Japan and the strengthening of the yen, while other major central world banks made statements that showed the possibility of a gradual tightening of their monetary policies.

Stopping the growth of the Japanese stock market, apparently, has alarmed the monetary authorities of Japan. And today Abe and Kuroda tried to dispel doubts of investors in the commitment of the Bank of Japan to the former soft policy.

The next meeting of the Bank of Japan, dedicated to monetary policy, will be held on December 21. Last month, the Bank of Japan reiterated its commitment to buy government bonds in the amount of 80 trillion yen a year, and the head of the Bank of Japan at a subsequent press conference promised that "we will patiently adhere to the policy of powerful easing in order to achieve inflation of 2%" and " take additional mitigation measures, if necessary ".

At the same time, the dollar is now recovering in the foreign exchange market and continues to grow during the European session, interrupting the drop observed within 4 days after the publication of the minutes from the November meeting of the Fed.

On Monday, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, spoke in favor of raising rates "in the near future", in part because of concerns over the economy's overheating.

Today, the dollar also was supported by the statements of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, who said that the economy is close to achieving full employment. Dudley reiterated his view that low inflation with low unemployment - "not really bad" and expressed support for a gradual rate hike.

Investors are waiting for Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate today. "We expect that interest rates will grow a little more, and the amount of the balance will gradually decrease", says the text of his speech, which will begin at 14:44 (GMT).

It is likely that Powell will support the Fed's plan to further raise the rate, which will provide short-term (1-2 days) support to the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 110.80, 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

Levels of resistance: 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40, 115.00, 116.00


Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop Loss 110.70. Take-Profit 111.65, 111.85, 112.55, 113.10, 114.00, 114.40

Sell Stop 110.70. Stop Loss 111.70. Take-Profit 110.15, 110.00, 109.20, 108.80, 108.10, 107.30, 107.00, 106.50, 105.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

DJIA: indexes updated recent absolute highs

29/11/2017

Current dynamics

After yesterday, the main US stock indexes updated the absolute highs, today the indices are traded in a narrow range, maintaining a positive momentum.

It is likely that the news that North Korea has launched another ballistic missile, which, according to the leadership of North Korea, can reach any point of the United States, kept the markets from continuing growth. Experts confirmed that the launched missile had a higher trajectory. This launch may once again intensify tensions in the region and worsen the country's relations with the United States.

So far, investors' reaction to this news has been rather low-key. It is likely that they are waiting for a reaction from the administration of the US President. If aggressive statements follow, investors can again begin to withdraw funds into safe assets and sell some of the high-risk assets of the stock market. The tougher the statements from the US president, the stronger the stock markets can "shake".

If the reaction from the administration of the US president does not follow, then the growth in US stock exchanges will continue.

Investors continue to analyze positive economic data from the US, as well as information that the US Senate Budget Committee voted on Tuesday to adopt a tax bill proposed by Republicans.

Now we can assume that the bill will be approved on Thursday, when it will be put to the vote in the Senate. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill.

At the same time, investors drew attention to the positive macro data received from the US on Tuesday. The index of consumer confidence in the US (according to the Conference Board version) rose in November to a new high for 17 years and amounted to 129.5 against 126.2 in October. The national housing price index in the USA increased by 6.2% in September (against + 5.9% in August) compared to the same period of the previous year, showing the fastest annual growth since June 2014. The growth of the production index (according to the Fed-Richmond data) was 30 in November (against 12 in October), the highest level since 1993.

The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rose to 2.338% from 1.328% on Monday.

As a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said yesterday during a hearing in the banking committee of the Senate, the Fed may move toward "normalizing interest rates". In his opinion, "if to wait too long for an increase in rates, the economy may overheat". Powell also suggested that US GDP growth in 2018 will be 2% -2.5%, and the unemployment rate will drop below 4%.

The data show that the growth of the US economy is accelerating towards the end of the year. Now investors are trying to understand how aggressively the Federal Reserve will be able to raise rates in the next year. The higher cost of borrowing makes the dollar and US assets more attractive for purchases.

Today, again, the rapid growth of volatility in the financial markets is expected during the American session, when important macro statistics from the United States begin to arrive, and Fed Chairman Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT) and FOMC member San Francisco FRB John Williams (at 17:45) start speeches.

If the data presented (GDP for the 3rd quarter (preliminary release), as well as the inflation index of spending on personal consumption of Americans) coincides with positive forecasts or will be stronger (3.2% GDP is expected to grow against 3.0% in the second quarter), then the dollar and US stock indices will react with growth.

At 19:00 (GMT) "Beige Book" with an economic review of the Fed the current situation in the US economy will be published.

The US stock market is expected to retain positive dynamics in the short term, if unexpected extraordinary events of a geopolitical scale do not follow.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0

Resistance levels: 23900.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 23780.0. Take-Profit 23900.0, 24000.0, 24100.0

Sell Stop 23780.0. Stop-Loss 23910.0. Take-Profit 23560.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22900.0, 22720.0, 22400.0, 22000.0, 21930.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

EUR/USD: amid positive US macro data

30/11/2017

Current dynamics

According to the US Department of Commerce, the gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of the production of goods and services in the economy, increased by 3.3% per annum in the third quarter (the forecast was + 3.0% and + 3.1% quarter).

This growth was the strongest in three years.

Federal Reserve manager Jerome Powell, who was nominated by US President Donald Trump as chairman to replace Janet Yellen, said on Tuesday at a Senate hearing that he expects GDP growth in 2017 to be 2.5%.

The yield of 10-year US government bonds, according to Tradeweb, after the release of data on US GDP on Wednesday rose to 2.385% from the level of 2.338% recorded on Tuesday.

"I believe that there are conditions for raising interest rates at the next meeting", Powell told lawmakers. The next meeting of the Fed is scheduled for December 12-13. Almost with 100% certainty, investors expect an increase in the key rate in December by 0.25%, which is currently in the range of 1% -1.25%.

President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, FOMC member John Williams on Wednesday also called for higher rates.

"As long as the data continues to indicate stable growth, and we see such an increase in inflation as we expect, we, in my personal view, should continue to slowly increase interest rates next year. If we do not return interest rates to more normal levels, we risk undermining steady growth and create conditions that could lead to a recession in the future", he said.

In a report published on Wednesday by the Federal Reserve System, known as the "Beige Book", it is said that economic activity in the country has increased "from modest to moderate" in recent weeks amid signs of rising prices and the continued strengthening of the labor market.

And yet, the dollar's growth on Wednesday turned out to be restrained, and on Thursday the dollar traded in different directions from the opening of the trading day and during the Asian session, declining against the euro and the pound. Apparently, several important factors do not allow the dollar to move into a more aggressive offensive.

Earlier in the week, the Budget Committee of the US Senate approved the republican bill of tax reform. On Thursday, a vote on this bill in the Senate should take place. Republican leaders are confident that they will be able to get 50 votes needed to approve the bill. And yet, there is a certain share of the risk for investors who are betting on the further growth of the dollar, if the bill is not adopted today in the Senate.

Disagreements among the leaders of the Fed on the pace and need to raise rates in 2018, which became clear from the previously published protocols from the November meeting of the Fed, also impose a negative imprint on the dynamics of the dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

At the beginning of the European session EUR / USD resumed its decline. This was facilitated by statistical data, published at 10:00 (GMT) and indicated that the rate of inflation in the Eurozone in November remained low.

The annual preliminary consumer price index (CPI) of the Eurozone in November is + 1.5% (against + 1.4% in October and + 1.6% according to the forecast). The unemployment data in the Eurozone, which declined to 8.8% in November (against 8.9% in the forecast and last month), slightly brighten the negative picture.

The EUR / USD could not develop the upward momentum and gain a foothold above the resistance level at 1.1875 (last month's highs). Breakdown of resistance level 1.1900 would determine its further growth.

EUR / USD broke the short-term support level 1.1837 (EMA200 on the 1-hour chart, EMA50 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the 4-hour chart) and is down to support level 1.1780 (Fibonacci level 38.2% corrective growth from the lows reached in March 2015 year in the last wave of global decline of the pair from the level of 1.3900, as well as EMA144, EMA200 on the 4-hour chart).

The break of this level will call into question the further growth of EUR / USD, and the medium-term reduction targets will be the support levels 1.1640 (EMA200 and the bottom line of the upward channel on the weekly chart), 1.1585 (EMA144), 1.1490 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Support levels: 1.1800, 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490, 1.1285

Resistance levels: 1.1837, 1.1875, 1.1900, 1.1930, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.1810. Stop-Loss 1.1880. Take-Profit 1.1780, 1.1765, 1.1640, 1.1600, 1.1585, 1.1490

Buy Stop 1.1880. Stop-Loss 1.1810. Take-Profit 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2000, 1.2050, 1.2090, 1.2100, 1.2180, 1.2320, 1.2430

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: pound declines despite strong macro data

01/12/2017

Current dynamics


According to data provided today by IHS Markit Ltd., the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for the UK manufacturing sector rose to 58.2 in November (the previous estimate was 56.6, the forecast was 56.5). Thus, the November figure was the highest in 51 months.

This indicator assesses the business climate and conditions in the manufacturing sector in the UK and is an important indicator of the business environment and the overall state of the country's economy. The manufacturing sector, the second most important in the UK after the services sector, forms a significant part of the final UK GDP. The value above 50 indicates an increase in activity, and below - to reduce it. Steady growth in activity in the UK manufacturing sector contributes to the recovery of the British economy as a whole.

This is a good sign for investors who put on the rise of pound and restoring of the British economy after the collapse of the pound after Brexit. And, nevertheless, the pound ignored the strong PMI for the manufacturing sector and continued the decline that began during the Asian session.

This week, the pound was supported by the news of progress in the negotiations on Brexit, although negotiations are still going on. Great Britain has increased the amount it is willing to pay for withdrawing from the European Union. The parties came to a preliminary agreement on the payment by the UK for the exit from the EU from 40 to 55 billion euros.

However, the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland threatens to give up support for the UK-based coalition if conditions for Northern Ireland differ from those for the rest of the country. The reminiscing about itself and the once again manifested uncertainty around Brexit halted the almost non-stop 4-week growth of the pound and the GBP / USD pair.

At the same time, the dollar also suspended its ascent after yesterday's vote in the Senate on the tax bill of the Republicans was postponed.

It turned out that the US budget deficit will increase by 1 trillion dollars within 10 years, if the proposed plan is adopted. Reducing the tax from US companies to 20% from the current 35% was the main point of the new economic policy of President Donald Trump. This promised to accelerate economic growth and inflation.

Thus, today in the foreign exchange market there is a multidirectional dynamics of the dollar.

At 15:00 (GMT) will be published important macro indicators for the United States. Among them - the index of business activity ISM (for November) in the manufacturing sector, which is an important indicator of the state of the US economy as a whole, the index of gradual acceleration of inflation from ISM for November, which assesses the state of the US industrial sector and the mood of business representatives regarding inflation. A relative decrease in indicators is expected, although, in general, indicators will remain well above the value of 50, which indicates the growth of this sector of the US economy.

Also during the American trading session (at 14:05, 14:30, 15:15 GMT) a number of representatives of the Federal Reserve, including the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis James Bullard, the executive director of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Robert Stephen Kaplan, the head of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank Patrick Harker, will speak. At this time (from 14:05 to 15:15) the volatility of trades will grow not only in terms of the dollar, but also in the American stock market.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055

Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3460. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3400, 1.3365, 1.3265, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3055

Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3460. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

Brent: despite the decline, the upward trend is prevailing

04/12/2017

Current dynamics

Last week in Vienna, OPEC, Russia and a number of other major oil-producing countries agreed to further reduce oil production by about 1.8 million barrels a day, or about 2% of global oil production.

The deal was extended until the end of 2018. The task of rebalancing the market has not yet been fulfilled, according to representatives of the countries participating in the meeting, which together control about 60% of world oil production.

"We need to wait for the exact rate of reduction (stocks) in the second quarter, and we will consider them at the June meeting. We expect that unless something unexpected happens, we will not change our course in the second half of the year", Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Falih said in Riyadh today.

At the same time, American oil companies will make their own decisions, Al-Falih said. The US can work in the existing parameters, according to Al-Falih.

Nevertheless, the proposal from the United States and other countries not participating in the deal will continue to grow. Now that the OPEC agreement on production cuts has been extended, the market will become dependent on oil production data, as well as sensitive to the dynamics of the dollar.

So, today in Asia quotations of oil futures fell against the background of the strengthening of the dollar. Prices lost some of the positions won at the end of last week.

February futures for Brent crude oil fell 0.47%, to 63.43 dollars per barrel. The spot price for Brent crude at the beginning of the European session is close to the level of 63.20, which is $ 0.3 per barrel less than the opening price of today's trading day.

The dollar received good support today after it became known on Saturday about the adoption of the US Senate tax bill. It provides for a reduction of the tax from companies to 20% from 35%, which should stimulate the growth of the US economy and the dollar in the long term.

Some pressure on oil prices was also provided by a report on Friday from the American oil service company Baker Hughes that the number of oil drilling rigs in the US increased by 2 units last week to 749 units after growing 9 units earlier two weeks ago. The maximum number of active drilling in this year was recorded in August (768 units). US oil producers still have a significant prospect for the production growth. Especially, the growth of oil production in the US will be stimulated by the extended OPEC deal and high oil prices. This, along with the growth of the dollar, will become one of the main constraints to the growth of oil prices.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and Resistance levels

From the end of June, Brent crude oil is traded in the upward channel on the daily chart, the upper limit of which runs near the 67.00 dollars per barrel mark.

The price remains above the key support level of 62.90 (EMA200 on the monthly chart), and in case of resumption of growth the nearest target will be a local resistance level of 64.50 (November highs). Growth above the level of 65.00 will indicate a full recovery in prices after falling from the level of 65.00 in June 2015 to the absolute minimums of 2016 near the mark of 27.00. According to optimistic forecasts, the price may soon overcome the $ 65.00 mark and rise to the area of $ 70.00.

Support levels: 62.90, 62.00, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.00, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50, 55.00, 54.00, 53.50, 52.20, 50.70, 50.00

Resistance levels: 63.50, 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 62.80. Stop-Loss 63.60. Take-Profit 62.60, 61.50, 61.00, 60.00, 59.85, 58.80, 58.00, 57.00, 56.20, 55.50

Buy Stop 63.60. Stop-Loss 62.80. Take-Profit 64.00, 64.50, 65.00, 65.30, 66.00, 67.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: The RBA kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5%

05/12/2017

Current dynamics

During today's Asian trading session, the Australian dollar was growing.

First, it rose against the background of more positive than expected retail sales figures for October. According to the data, retail sales in October in Australia increased by 0.5%, exceeding expectations. In September, the indicator grew only by 0.1%, and in August and July, retail sales in Australia decreased by 0.6% and 0.2%, respectively.

Then, the Australian dollar received support from positive data from China, according to which activity in the services sector of China in November grew at a faster pace. The index of supply managers (PMI) for the service sector of China, calculated by Caixin Media Co. and research company Markit, in November it increased to 51.9 against 51.2 in October.

Later (at 03:30 GMT), the RBA decision was published, according to which the interest rate was saved at the current level of 1.5%. This RBA decision was expected, and it did not make a strong impression on market participants. The Australian dollar reacted rather weakly to the decision of the RBA.

In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".

RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time".

Contradictory economic indicators (record low wage growth rate, surplus labor market resources and weak inflationary pressures) contribute to the cautious approach of RBA leaders towards monetary policy. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, interest rates are likely to remain unchanged.

At the same time, strong macro data and positive news on the success of the presidential administration in promoting tax reform continue to flow from the US. This will accelerate economic growth in the country and increase inflation. This, in turn, will allow the Fed to aggressively tighten monetary policy, which will increase the attractiveness of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.

Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.

From the news for today we are waiting for data from the USA. At 14:45 (GMT) will be published indexes of business activity in the service sector (PMI), which is an indicator of the state of the services sector in the US economy. According to the forecast, a slight decrease is expected after a strong growth in October (59.0 versus 60.1 in October). Nevertheless, the result above 50 is considered positive and strengthens the US dollar. It is likely that the decline in the US dollar, if the data will be weaker than the forecast values, will be short-term in nature.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily charts are on the buyers side. Therefore, if the resistance level of 0.7655 breaks, the AUD / USD growth will continue to the resistance level of 0.7695 (EMA200 on the daily chart).

Nevertheless, the downward dynamics prevails.

Support levels: 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460

Resistance levels: 0.7640, 0.7655, 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950


Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7665. Take-Profit 0.7625, 0.7600, 0.7520, 0.7500, 0.7460

Buy Stop 0.7665. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7695, 0.7715, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

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