Tifia Forex Broker Daily Market Analytics, Analytics and trading recommendations by Tifia Company

[Tifia FX]

USD/CAD: the meeting of the Bank of Canada

06/12/2017

Current dynamics

In the focus of attention of traders today will be the meeting of the Bank of Canada and publication of the decision on the interest rate. Bank of Canada twice this year raised rates - in July and September. Inflation remains below the target level of 2%. The head of the Bank of Canada, Poloz noted earlier that the target range for inflation is 1% -3%, and said that the decline in the Canadian dollar will support exports. The Central Bank does not promise that the next step will be in favor of a rate hike, but the statement of the Bank of Canada says that it will closely monitor the level of household debt, and will decide in which direction the next change in monetary policy will be.

The decision to raise the rate was motivated by the desire to somewhat stabilize the monetary policy in the country against the background of rising oil prices after a series of lowering rates after the crisis in 2008.

It is widely expected that the rate will remain at the current level of 1.0%. The growth of the Canadian economy slowed in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, GDP grew only by 1.7% (after growth of 4.2% in 2Q). According to economists, the Bank of Canada will not change the interest rate until the second half of 2018 to wait for clearer signals about the economic recovery, despite the strong labor market in the country.

At the same time, the Fed intends to continue tightening monetary policy. The different focus of monetary policy in the US and Canada will be the most important factor in favor of the growth of the pair USD / CAD.

On the other hand, unexpected solutions are not excluded. As the recent events have shown, the Bank of Canada is able to surprise the markets. This applies, in particular, to unexpected increases in rates in July and September, despite the low inflation in Canada.

If today the rate is also raised, then the Canadian dollar will be sharply strengthened.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support and resistance levels

On strong data from the Canadian labor market published on Friday, the pair USD / CAD broke through the important support levels 1.2835 (EMA200), 1.2770 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1.2740 (Fibonacci level 38.2% downward correction to the pair's growth in the global ascendant trend from September 2012 and 0.9700 mark), 1.2715 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart) and again tries to return in to the descending channel on the weekly chart, trading just below its upper limit at the beginning of today's European session.

Indicators OsMA and Stochastics on the 4-hour, daily, weekly charts have deployed to short positions, signaling a possible resumption of the downtrend.

So far, the downward trend is prevailing.

In case of breakdown of the local support level 1.2620, the target for further reduction will be the support level 1.2500 (EMA200 on the weekly chart).

The breakdown of the support level at 1.2430 will completely return the USD / CAD pair to the downtrend and send it (within the downward channel on the weekly chart) to support levels 1.2170 (50% Fibonacci level), 1.2050 (2017 low).

The long-term goal of the decline is support level 1.1590 (Fibonacci level 61.8% and the bottom line of the descending channel on the weekly chart).

The signal for the resumption of growth will be the return of USD / CAD to the zone above the resistance level of 1.2740. A break of resistance level 1.2900 will return the pair USD / CAD to the upward global trend, which began in September 2012.

Support levels: 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Resistance levels: 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.2650. Stop-Loss 1.2690. Take-Profit 1.2620, 1.2500, 1.2430, 1.2300, 1.2170, 1.2100, 1.2050

Buy Stop 1.2690. Stop-Loss 1.2650. Take-Profit 1.2715, 1.2740, 1.2770, 1.2835, 1.2900

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

XAU/USD: The dollar is stable against the backdrop of new signs of strengthening the labor market

07/12/2017

Current dynamics

The dollar continues to bargain with the rise after it rose on Wednesday amid new signs of strengthening the labor market in the US. The ADP report, based on data from private companies, as well as on government data, pointed to a 190,000 increase in jobs in the private sector in the United States (the forecast was +175,000).

Hopes for signing the law on tax reform also support the US dollar. Earlier it became known that on Saturday the Senate passed a bill providing for lowering the tax from companies to 20% from 35%. This victory of Republicans and the administration of Donald Trump promises to give a new impetus to the US economy and accelerate the growth of inflation, which will allow the Fed to tighten its monetary policy more confidently.

Despite disagreements between legislators, it is very likely that the final bill on tax reform will appear before the end of this year. And this, of course, is a strong fundamental factor for the growth of the dollar and the assets of the American stock market.

This, in turn, encourages investors to withdraw funds from safe assets, directing them to purchase higher-yield assets.

Today we are waiting for the publication at 13:30 (GMT) macro data from the United States. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits last week increased by 2,000 and amounted to 240,000. Despite the small increase, the number of unemployed has remained at the lowest level since 1973, and initial claims for benefits are kept below the mark in 300 000 for more than 2.5 years. This is the longest series since 1970. Employers will have to raise salaries to retain or attract employees, which will lead to an increase in personal incomes, correspondingly, expenditures and a gradual acceleration of inflation.

And this is a downgrade factor for gold prices, as in the case of rising inflation rates increase becomes more real event. The cost of acquiring and storing gold in this case will grow.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics



Support and resistance levels

The XAU / USD declines for the third day in a row, breaking through the important support levels 1277.00 (Fibonacci level 61.8% correction to the wave of decline since July 2016), 1275.00 (EMA144 on the daily chart), 1269.00 (EMA200 on the daily chart). The next target of the decline will be the support level of 1248.00 (Fibonacci level of 50%).

A break of this level could provoke further weakening of the pair XAU / USD and a return to the global downtrend that began in October 2012.

An alternative scenario involves a weakening of the dollar and a return of XAU / USD to the zone above the resistance level of 1280.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart, EMA50 on the daily chart).

Meanwhile, against the background of the strengthening of the dollar, negative dynamics of XAU/USD predominate.

Support levels: 1250.00, 1248.00

Resistance levels: 1260.00, 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00, 1312.00


Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 1265.00. Take-Profit 1250.00, 1248.00, 1240.00

Buy Stop 1265.00. Stop-Loss 1255.00. Take-Profit 1269.00, 1275.00, 1277.00, 1280.00, 1290.00, 1300.00, 1305.00

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: pound grows on breakthrough in Brexit talks

08/12/2017

Current dynamics

The pound continues to trade stably ahead of the publication (13:30 GMT) of data from the US labor market, including against the dollar. Strong data are expected: the increase in the number of new places created in the non-agricultural sector of the US economy amounted to 200,000 in November (after an increase of 261,000 new seats in October), the average hourly wage rose by 0.3% (after rising in October 0%), unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%.

It is likely that the dollar will strengthen in response to the publication of strong data.

This is the latest important macro data before the Fed meeting next week (December 12 - 13). If labor market data comes out, as predicted, with strong values, then there will be no last doubt that the Fed will raise the rate at this meeting. And, although this increase, by and large, is already taken into account in prices, strong macro data creates the basis for further rate increases. And this is a strong fundamental factor for the further growth of the dollar.

The optimism of investors regarding the prospects for the US economy has increased. The index of the dollar WSJ, which displays the value of the US currency against a basket of 16 currencies, increased by 0.1%, to 87.25.

In anticipation of the publication of strong data from the labor market, the dollar is growing in price against major competitor currencies, including against safe assets, the yen, the franc, and gold. The exception is, perhaps, only the pound, which maintains positive dynamics, including in the GBP / USD.

Today, the pound received additional support after the results of the talks of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker with the prime ministers of Ireland and Great Britain became known.

British Prime Minister Theresa May and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker announced that the UK and the EU reached an agreement under Brexit terms. Now, after six months of tense negotiations, the way to discussing the trade agreement has been opened. "I believe that we have reached the necessary breakthrough", Juncker said. The agreement on the conditions for the exit of the UK from the EU, which include financial conditions, the conditions for the stay of EU citizens in the UK, and the settlement of the border problem with Ireland, means that EU representatives are now likely to agree to further negotiations.

If at the meeting in Brussels on December 14-15 the leaders of the EU countries approve the agreement, then negotiations on further UK trade agreements with the EU and conditions for a transition period may begin in the next few weeks. The UK exit from the EU is scheduled for March 2019. The trade agreement can be signed only after the UK leaves the bloc.

The pound also gets support from positive macro statistics on the UK, coming in recently.

According to official data released on Friday, manufacturing production in October increased by 0.1% compared to September, and by 3.9% compared to October last year.

Industrial production in the UK for the first time in history grew in October for the sixth consecutive month.

Contrary to the gloomy forecasts of economists, the UK economy did not collapse after the referendum on Brexit, and British producers are supported by weakening the pound and strong external demand. The manufacturing sector accounts for about one-fifth of the country's economy, mainly based on services and the domestic market. In general, industrial production in the UK in October compared with October last year increased by 3.6%, which is slightly higher than the forecast.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075

Resistance levels: 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3440. Stop-Loss 1.3520. Take-Profit 1.3410, 1.3365, 1.3300, 1.3210, 1.3175, 1.3100, 1.3075

Buy Stop 1.3520. Stop-Loss 1.3440. Take-Profit 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

S&P500: major indices retain positive dynamics

11/12/2017

Current dynamics

Major US stock indices on Monday remain positive dynamics, stably bargaining on eve of the Fed meeting scheduled for December 12-13. On Friday, US indices rose and recorded growth in the past week against the background of the restoration of shares of technology companies and more favorable than expected, the report on the US labor market. As you know, the report of the US Department of Labor pointed to an increase of 228,000 new jobs (with a forecast of +200,000). Unemployment remained at the same level of 4.1%. The picture was somewhat spoiled by the index of the average hourly earnings, which in November was less than the forecast and amounted to 0.2% (the forecast was 0.3%).

This week, important decisions of three other leading central banks in the world and fresh data on inflation are expected. On December 14, sessions of the NBS, the Bank of England and the ECB are scheduled. As unforeseen decisions of central banks are not expected, the most interesting are the forecasts of inflation and economic development.

It is widely expected that the Fed at its meeting will decide to raise the interest rate by 0.25% to 1.50% (publication of the decision on the rates is scheduled for 19:00 (GMT) on Wednesday). Investors, basically, have already considered this increase in prices, and their attention will be riveted to the report of the Fed with forecasts on inflation and economic growth, as well as the views of FOMC members regarding further plans for monetary policy.

Probably, the Fed will adhere to current plans, according to which it intends to gradually raise rates three more times in 2018.

Against the backdrop of positive, as investors expect, Fed reports, US stock indexes will continue to grow, despite overbought. If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline.

Investors will carefully study the text of the report in order to understand the prospects of the course of the current policy of the Federal Reserve System. Volatility during the publication of the report can significantly increase.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0, 2444.0, 2415.0

Resistance levels: 2663.0, 2700.0


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 2637.0. Stop-Loss 2660.0. Objectives 2634.0, 2600.0, 2582.0, 2565.0, 2500.0, 2466.0

Buy Stop 2660.0 Stop-Loss 2637.0. Objectives 2663.0, 2685.0, 2700.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: inflation in the UK remains high

12/12/2017

Current dynamics

Presented at the beginning of today's European session, data on consumer inflation in the UK caused a surge in volatility in the dynamics of the pound. The consumer price index (CPI) of Great Britain in November grew by 3.1% (in annual terms), exceeding the forecast by 0.1% and the target inflation rate by 1%.

Consumer prices in the UK in November grew at the fastest pace in the past six years, and signs of a weakening of price pressure are not observed.

Accelerating inflation increases the pressure on household budgets, which has a negative impact on consumer spending and the economy as a whole, focused mainly on the domestic market.

A significant share of the UK's GDP is made up of consumer spending. Due to the sharp drop in the pound after the referendum on Brexit, both imported consumer goods and raw materials imported to the UK rose in price. This, in turn, increased the producers' selling prices, and as a result, accelerated the growth of prices for consumer goods.

In November, the Bank of England raised its key interest rate for the first time in ten years, intending to slow inflation to a target level of 2%. As stated in the Bank of England, during the next three years the rate can be increased 2 more times, by 0.25% each time.

However, the data published today indicate that high inflation rates may remain in the UK longer than economists had expected.

It is possible that the leaders of the Bank of England will again soon have to think about another increase in the interest rate in order to bring down the growing inflation.

On Thursday, there will be the next meeting of the Bank of England. It is widely expected that the rate will be maintained at the current level of 0.5%. Investors will be interested in the report on monetary policy with the results of voting on the rate and other issues, as well as comments on the state of the economy and the minutes of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with the votes cast for and against the increase / decrease in the interest rate. The main risks for the UK after Brexit are associated with expectations of a slowdown in the country's economic growth, as well as a large current account deficit in the UK's balance of payments.

The determining factor in the dynamics of the pound is still the situation around Brexit. Now "galloping" inflation is added to this list. Thus, the intrigue about the further actions of the Bank of England remains.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3310, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080

Resistance levels: 1.3395, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3290. Stop-Loss 1.3410. Take-Profit 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3100, 1.3080

Buy Stop 1.3410. Stop-Loss 1.3290. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

DJIA: on the eve of the Fed decision on rates

13/12/2017

Current dynamics

In the run-up to the publication of the Fed's decision on the rate, there is a low activity of traders.

Trading volumes are also small. Investors take into account in the prices of 100% the probability of a rate increase today at 0.25% to 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the dollar keeps positive dynamics. The index of the dollar WSJ on Tuesday rose to a maximum level for the last 3 weeks, near the mark of 87.25. This was the longest period of its continuous growth (for seven consecutive sessions) since November 2016.

The main US stock indexes also traded with a rise, continuing to develop an upward trend. Dow Jones Industrial Average on Tuesday rose by 0.5%, to 24535 points, the S & P500 increased by 0.2%, to 2664 points. Both indexes closed above previous record highs, gaining support from shares of telecommunications and financial companies.

The dollar and stock indices also received support from Tuesday's strong US macro data. As reported by the US Department of Labor, producer prices compared to the same period of the previous year increased by 3.1%, which was the most significant growth in almost six years. It is expected that the November CPI, which will be released on Wednesday (13:30 GMT), will also show growth (by 0.4% compared to the previous month).

Nevertheless, the main focus of investors will be focused on the Fed's report published at 19:00 (GMT) with an assessment of the current economic situation, as well as with the views of members of the FOMC regarding the prospects for further tightening of monetary policy.

Previously, the leadership of the Federal Reserve planned three increases in the key rate for 2018. In addition, the Fed expects that the rate of annual inflation in the US by the end of 2019 will reach 2%. Nevertheless, if the Fed will expect to maintain low price pressure in the US economy, then the number of key rate increases planned for next year can be reduced to two.

According to the CME Group, investors estimate the likelihood of an increase in the key rate to a range of 1.75% -2% by November next year at 38%. This will require 2 rate hikes by a quarter of a percentage point next year. Many economists expect three increases in the key rate in 2018 and two increases in 2019.

If inflation data is expected to be weak and Fed officials again lower their forecasts for 2018, then the probability of three rate increases in 2018 will decrease, and this will negatively affect the dollar.

If, however, the Fed report or the views of FOMC members contain fears about the future of economic development in the US or accelerate the growth of inflation, the stock indexes may short-term, but sharply decline. A little later (19:30 GMT) the head of the Fed, Janet Yellen will speak. It is expected that volatility during the publication of the report and the speech of Janet Yellen can significantly increase.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0

Resistance levels: 24535.0, 24700.0


Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 24400.0. Take-Profit 24700.0

Sell Stop 24400.0. Stop-Loss 24600.0. Take-Profit 24265.0, 23780.0, 23340.0, 23250.0, 22450.0, 22100.0

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

USD/CHF: the dollar is recovering after a large decline

14/12/2017

Current dynamics

In the focus of attention of traders yesterday was the meeting and the decision of the Fed on the rate, which was published at 19:00 (GMT). As it was already known, the rate was raised by a quarter of a percentage point, to the range of 1.25% -1.50%, for the third time in 2017. The Fed kept the forecast, according to which it is planned to raise rates three times in the next year.

Nevertheless, despite the improved estimates of economic growth and the potential economic incentives expected from the upcoming tax reform in the US, as well as the clearly stated position of the Fed on further tightening of monetary policy, the dollar has declined.

Today, during the Asian session, the dollar's decline continued. Today, market participants will focus on meetings of the two largest world central banks - the Bank of England and the ECB. Decisions on rates in the UK and the Eurozone will be published at 12:00, 12:45 (GMT), respectively.

At 13:30, the ECB press conference will begin. In his speech, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi will give explanations regarding the decision taken, and also, probably, answer questions about the QE program in the Eurozone. Most likely, Mario Drago confirms the propensity to continue the extra soft monetary policy of the ECB, which will negatively affect the euro.

Meanwhile, at 08:30 (GMT) the decision of the Swiss National Bank on interest rates was published.

As expected, the Swiss National Bank left the deposit rate at the level of -0.75% and left without changing the range for the 3-month LIBOR rate, between -1.25% and -0.25%. According to the NBS, the overvaluation of the franc "continues to decrease", but "the Swiss National Bank continues to consider the necessary negative interest rate and is ready to interference in the foreign exchange market, if the situation requires it".

The Swiss franc has reacted with a decrease in the NBS decision, including against the dollar, which at the beginning of the European session is attempting to recover after yesterday's decline.

Of the news for today, also waiting for macro data on the US (preliminary values for December), the publication of which is scheduled for 14:45 (GMT). PMIs will be published in the most important sectors of the US economy (in the services sector and in the manufacturing sector). The growth of indicators is expected, which should support the dollar.

If the PMI indices come out with values worse than the forecast, then the dollar's decline will resume.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.9875, 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500, 0.9445

Resistance levels: 0.9890, 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000


Trading Scenarios

Buy in the market. Stop-Loss 0.9865. Take-Profit 0.9900, 0.9973, 1.0000

Sell Stop 0.9865. Stop-Loss 0.9910. Take-Profit 0.9810, 0.9775, 0.9730, 0.9700, 0.9650, 0.9635, 0.9600, 0.9545, 0.9500

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

GBP/USD: pound is vulnerable against the background of negotiations on Brexit

15/12/2017

Current dynamics

Against the backdrop of the newly emerging uncertainty around Brexit, the pound is declining during today's European session. Today, on the second day of the EU summit, its leaders ordered the UK to outline the prospects and goals of signing an agreement on mutual trade in the coming weeks.

It is expected that on Friday it will be decided to move on to the next stage of negotiations on Brexit. But so far there is no clear position on the part of the UK on this issue.

There is no consensus in the UK government about further relations with the EU and an understanding of what concessions Brexit's supporters are willing to take to maintain close trade ties with the EU. The British Prime Minister has so far vainly tried to smooth the differences in the government about Brexit.

All this negatively affects the quotations of the pound, which is falling against the dollar, even against the background of the fact that the dollar continues to trade lower against other major currencies.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday, but the dollar fell, as this decision was widely expected, and leaders of Fed were cautious about the central bank's statement. The Fed raised its forecasts for US GDP growth, but did not change its inflation forecasts. "It may take more time to reach a target inflation rate of 2%", Fed Chairman Janet Yellen said at a news conference after the central bank meeting.

The Bank of England, as well as the Swiss National Bank and the ECB, left its monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, despite the high inflation in the UK, triggered by the fall of the pound after the referendum on Brexit held last summer.

Today, on the last trading day of the week, it is possible to fix profit in short positions on the dollar, which can cause its growth in the foreign exchange market.

Triggers may be the publication at 14:15 (GMT) of data on the level of industrial production and the use of production capacity in the US for November. If the data prove to be strong, then the dollar will strengthen.

Also worth paying attention to the speech at 13:15 (GMT) of the representative of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, the executive director of monetary and credit analysis and statistics, Andrew Haldane.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 1.3395, 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080

Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050


Trading Scenarios

Sell Stop 1.3390. Stop-Loss 1.3480. Take-Profit 1.3325, 1.3280, 1.3210, 1.3080

Buy Stop 1.3480. Stop-Loss 1.3390. Take-Profit 1.3500, 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3720, 1.3970, 1.4050

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

AUD/USD: on the eve of the publication of the minutes from the RBA meeting

18/12/2017

Current dynamics

After the RBA kept the interest rate at the current level of 1.5% at the beginning of the month, the Australian dollar strengthened its decline. In the accompanying statement of the RBA it was stated that "interest rates correspond to the goals in relation to GDP, inflation. Low rates support the Australian economy, and a higher rate of the Australian dollar will slow the economic recovery".

RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated that, in the opinion of the board, "it is advisable to leave monetary policy unchanged at this meeting in order to maintain a stable growth of the economy and achieve a target inflation rate over time". The AUD / USD reached its June lows near the 0.7500 mark.

Nevertheless, the AUD / USD subsequently increased, and the past week was one of the best in terms of growth since July, mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar.

The Australian dollar also received support from positive data from the Australian labor market, published on Thursday. According to the data, the unemployment rate in Australia in November was 5.4%, while the number of jobs increased by 61600 after rising by 7800 in October (the forecast was +18000 new jobs).

Tomorrow (00:30 GMT) the minutes of the December meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be published. The minutes are published two weeks after the decision on the interest rate. It will present a report on the current state of the Australian economy with details of the decision on the rates. If the RBA shows a "hawkish" attitude toward the inflation forecast in the economy, the markets view this as a higher probability of a rate hike, which is a positive factor for the AUD. The soft tone of the protocol and the propensity to continue carrying out a soft monetary policy will help to weaken the Australian currency.

At the same time, the Fed implemented a third increase in short-term interest rates in December and signaled that next year it will follow a similar course and intends to implement three rate increases of 0.25% each time.

Thus, a different focus of monetary policy in Australia and the US will further reduce AUD / USD in the medium term.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7640, 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460

Resistance levels: 0.7655, 0.7670, 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950


Trading Scenarios

Sell in the market. Stop-Loss 0.7675. Take-Profit 0.7630, 0.7600, 0.7545, 0.7500, 0.7460

Buy Stop 0.7675. Stop-Loss 0.7620. Take-Profit 0.7690, 0.7705, 0.7740, 0.7800, 0.7850, 0.7885, 0.7950

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com

 

[Tifia FX]

NZD/USD: New Zealand business confidence index remains in negative territory

19/12/2017

Current dynamics

As it was reported today during the Asian session by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the confidence index in the business circles of New Zealand in December is still deep in the negative territory and amounts to -37.8% (in November the value of the index was -39.3%). The index of business confidence assesses the business climate in New Zealand and allows you to analyze the economic situation in the short term. The decrease in the value of the indicator indicates a decrease in business confidence and a decrease in business investment, which negatively affects the production and other areas of the economy of New Zealand.

The mood of producers in the agricultural sector, the leading industry in New Zealand's economy, is still deteriorating, reflecting a negative reaction to the new government. The achievements of recent years in the growth of the country's economy belong to the former leadership of the country. The general elections that took place at the end of September in New Zealand led to the defeat of the ruling at the time conservative party.

The consumer mood in New Zealand is also deteriorating. This is evidenced by the decline in the consumer sentiment indicator in New Zealand, published today at the beginning of the Asian trading session (107.4 in the fourth quarter against 112.4 in the previous quarter).

According to many economists, the RBNZ can return to consideration of the possibility of raising the rate in New Zealand not earlier than the second half of 2018.

On the other hand, the US dollar currently looks more promising for investment than the New Zealand dollar against the backdrop of expectations of a phased increase in the Fed's rate and accelerating the growth of the US economy. The Fed plans to raise the rate 3 times in 2018. Thus, the fundamental factors testify to the reduction of the NZD / USD.

From the news for today, we are waiting for the publication of the results of the dairy auction (in the period after 14:00 GMT). Two weeks ago, the dairy price index, prepared by Global Dairy Trade, came out at + 0.4% (against previous values of -3.4%, -3.5%, -1.0%, -2.4%) . Dairy products - one of the main exports goods of New Zealand, so the reduction in world prices for dairy products harms the quotes of the New Zealand dollar.

*)An advanced fundamental analysis is available on the Tifia Forex Broker website at tifia.com/analytics


Support levels: 0.7000, 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800

Resistance levels: 0.7030, 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270



Trading scenarios

Sell Stop 0.6990. Stop-Loss 0.7040. Take-Profit 0.6980, 0.6935, 0.6863, 0.6800

Buy Stop 0.7040. Stop-Loss 0.6990. Take-Profit 0.7070, 0.7110, 0.7200, 0.7240, 0.7270

*) For up-to-date and detailed analytics and news on the forex market visit Tifia Forex Broker website tifia.com