WaveRider - Back to Basics - S/R, Price Action, MM, Smart Exits, One Indicator, and patience...

[WaveRider]

It seems the trend following banks are having their stops hit by the commercials. I'm really curious what this weeks COT will look like. Every session is selling. I got 1/3rd out this morning with about 65 pips but left a full 2/3rds to continue trending down. The position is at 150 pips and counting. I haven't seen a real retracement that would allow me to get in. But trends are very forgiving of poor entries, as long as we are going with it. We're at a hard resistance now and I'd expect a little rally tomorrow but who knows. Since this week was an expanded one, next week will likely be a contracted one.

 

[WaveRider]

GBP selling still

I've already taken 2/3rd off this position, 1/3rd at 65 pips and 1/3rd at 151 pips, but the trade is already worth about 6% of the account and stops are at break even +2 pips so no way to lose. Hopefully the position survives NFP this morning. I'll leave this in until it looks like the trend is done. I couldn'tbe happier with this trade, except when it goes my way I never seem to have a big enough position.

 

[WaveRider]

We're at a hard resistance now and I'd expect a little rally tomorrow but who knows.

We rallied enough to let us get short again. I haven't done my weekly analysis yet or checked what bonds are doing but we had a nice pull back and I think the trend following banks are trying to get aligned with the new down trend so I expect them to be getting short next week too.

 

[WaveRider]

We did get our rally. Bond yields have shot up again, meaning risk on and Cable Fiber up. But COT open interest is dropped and the commercials are starting to lessen their shorts. This indicates we have entered a new down trend as they will start buying weakness. I expect some rally to take out stops early week, which we saw, then another push down today. Weekly market tops and bottoms happen mostly on Monday or Tuesday so I'm expecting the weekly high to be today.

I sold the Cable last night at the WPP since it was diverging from the Fiber and was thus the lead pair. It was good for 30 pips and 1% on the live account. I can't watch the charts today so I'm already short the Fiber with SL 10 pips above Asia's range. Risk is about 1.5% and reward is about 2%. I have software taking profit and moving stops for me. If I'm wrong, it will probably be because the Cable wants down and the Fiber wants to range. Or maybe I'm just wrong..

 

[WaveRider]

Well I'm trying out to be a minigiant. I'll be posting my trades in this thread

https://www.forexpeacearmy.com/fore...-analysis-days-weeks-seasons-cable-fiber.html

If I make it to minigiant I'll post the new link. Wish me luck.

I have a feeling about 1 or 2 people even look at this thread so, thanks to the one or two people who read this!

 

[RahmanSL]

Hi WaveRider....couldn't find time to follow and to post on this thread due to (as mentioned elsewhere) work commitments.
But, by April 2013, I will most probably be much more active here at the FPA as I plan to take a long break from any more project works and to trade the forex on a more frequent basis.

So, my friend, I will be relying on your "computer/natural EA" to fast-track me to day/scalp trade the forex successfully on a "play" account .....as mentioned elsewhere, I rely more on "Carry trade" for investment purposes for my bigger account as that gives me much3 more returns than from bank fixed deposit.
Only trick is to find a reliable & trusted broker who have reasonable high positive swap rates for exotic currencies (...i.e EUR/HUF, USD/HUF, etc).

All the best!

 

[WaveRider]

Hi WaveRider....couldn't find time to follow and to post on this thread due to (as mentioned elsewhere) work commitments.
But, by April 2013, I will most probably be much more active here at the FPA as I plan to take a long break from any more project works and to trade the forex on a more frequent basis.

So, my friend, I will be relying on your "computer/natural EA" to fast-track me to day/scalp trade the forex successfully on a "play" account .....as mentioned elsewhere, I rely more on "Carry trade" for investment purposes for my bigger account as that gives me much3 more returns than from bank fixed deposit.
Only trick is to find a reliable & trusted broker who have reasonable high positive swap rates for exotic currencies (...i.e EUR/HUF, USD/HUF, etc).

All the best!

Great to hear you'll be back. My work is streaky too. I'm curious about your swap rate method. Let me know if you need anything. I use an EA to manage my positions which I did post in this thread. Talk to you soon.

 

[RahmanSL]

"......I'm curious about your swap rate method......."


Hi buddy! Hope the forex market has been kind to you!

Ok, as I have mentioned, I have been and is still being kept busy with my bread-and-butter project works right until at least April 2013.
Last month I hurriedly set-up a "Carry Trade" on a Demo account with IC Markets (as in attachment) just to demonstrate to you what I am on about.
Of course........the account need not be AUD1m, but, like I said, I set that up in a hurry and the actual amount was supposed to be USD100k, but somehow it became AUD1m ....and also, the currency is supposed to be in USD.


The way the positive swaps are accumulating on a daily basis, in just under one year's time the positive swaps will pay just over AUD1.2m which will be more than initial investment of AUD1m.
And....this is the best part.......I absolutely don't have to do anymore trading on that account but just to check and maintain the account once in a while....and the chances of the account going into margin call & stop out is extremely remote.

Ok buddy, all the best and, please, any comments & views would be highly appreciated.

=============================
Additional comments:
The beauty of this "Carry trade" is that I can choose to close all opened positions when the balance is at whatever percentage profits that I am satisfied with without having to wait for one year and start the process all over again with a much higher account balance and, of course, bigger daily positive swaps.

=============================

P/S: I am not sure whether the "Detail Statement" have been downloaded properly as I kept getting an "Invalid file" pop-up message and I finally simply drag and drop the file into the "Attachment" box.

=========================

Ok, so Detailed Statement didn't or couldn't be downloaded as an attachment.
I am attaching three (ignore the first one as I do not know how to delete it) screenshots of the account.

 

[FringFX]

Only trick is to find a reliable & trusted broker who have reasonable high positive swap rates for exotic currencies (...i.e EUR/HUF, USD/HUF, etc).
All the best!

have you found the best brokers for this? you can PM me or post here. Thanks

 

[WaveRider]

Week of July 21 2014

I only got 70 pips out of last week. So I'm a little bummed. Once it zipps away, I need it to pull back to get in but it never pulled back.

Fiber: Market structure has just broken on the daily bearish. Friday formed a pinbar at the 1.3500 support. WPP will be at 1.3550. There is a significant confluence resistance 1.3650. I don't expect us to get that high. The bottom of the 4h consolidation is at 1.375 and we may chop around there a little before making the 3rd drive. Monday I expect to accumulate and maybe test the 1.3500 level, Tuesday head up to 1.3575-80, then down again for the rest of the week. Target would be 1.3420-50. This completes the 3 drives and hits some old lows on the daily.

Plan: Sell at 1.3550, again at 1.3580 with stop above the 1.3650 level. I don't like stops that wide but off the 4h chart, that is the safest spot. Since were with the over all trend, we may take partial profit and leave some in. I'll move stops to BE at 30 pips profit. Target 1.3450 or 1.3420. I don't expect it to penetrate the 1.3580 level.




Cable: 4h structure is bearish and we're at a key resistance level and even made a nice stop run north before the drop. Friday formed a pin bar into and out of a price pivot zone. I don't trust this down though. The daily is still bullish and I should be looking for buys. I just don't want to buy into a resistance level at 1.7180. I'm bearish on this cautiously. I want to see a run at the WPP 1.7102 and psych level 1.7100. If we break above 1.7120 it will indicate we are still in a buy program, so I'll take the loss and be looking for longs probably. If we do go lower, this will synchronize the cable and fiber and that will be very helpful for us.

Plan: Sell at 1.7080, stops at 1.7124, TP at 1.7009. Turns are tricky and sells are against the daily trend so be careful. I won't leave any in since were against the daily trend.