Fiber Analysis and bias for next week
We had a nice thrust Friday. I have 3 positions open that had pretty wide stops, as I'm still learning to trade the ranging markets. All three are in profit from 50-125 pips and I'll leave them open as the trade context remains bearish. I'm hoping to trail stops probably at 4h highs. Since I feel more comfortable trading the trending markets, I'll look to scale into the trend that I think is coming.
.
Weekly bias: Down. Weekly charts looks as bearish as ever, and we are in the November sell off season. Since we have thrusted down off a very strong 4h pinbar from a major S/R, I think the down will continue at least until 1.2620, a major weekly supprt.
.
Next week bias, down or doji. Last week was a doji except Friday's NFP move down. It made the expected stop runs. I don't think we're doing that this coming week. It'll be a moderate down much like last week in total or a big drop, I think. If PA breaks out of this price pivot zone, it should collapse pretty fast.
.
Daily Bias:
Monday: No trading monday. Looking for London open fake out. I expect asia to trade up, away from the open cliff since asia is not really into being exposed to new H's or L's. Lond to fake down then continue up to wipe out street money who got in short at Fridays hoping that will continue. WPP is at 1.2880 confluence with a 4h trendline, 1.2900 psych level. That will possible be Mondays top target. We are at the bottom of a weekly range box or price pivot zone so we expect that to be respected at the beginning of the week, giving us a better entry. I'll be flat because I want London to show it's hand.
.
Tuesday: Asia will likely range at some resistance or go down a little held by a psych level or S/R based on Friday range or last week range. London open tuesday will make the stop run above this level then come crashing down and continue down the whole week. If this happens, I hope to catch the whole weeks range down. I'll get in Tuesday morning after the stop run.
.
Wednesday: If this stop run doesn't happen Tuesday, I'll look for it Wednesday and will enter Wed with the same plan as above.
.
Plan for weekly down bar:In Tues short, TP partial at 30 pips, stops to BE and stay in all week until Friday at lunch.
Plan for weekly doji: The week will probably fake down on Monday and zip up til Wed or Thursday, exactly what happend last week.
I'm setting a limit sell at 1.2890. It has a lot of confluence protection and it is about the 62% of Fridays range. I don't expect Monday to go up past 1.2865-ish so we'll reexamine where we are Monday night for another limit order.