Solid ECN | Daily Technical | Video | Major Products

[SOLID ECN LLC]

USDJPY insights by Solid ECN Securities
The pair is aiming for the January high

Due to the difference in approaches to regulating monetary processes by the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve, the USDJPY pair is strengthening its position and has now reached the level of 115.4, preparing to continue its upward trend towards 116.10.

The long-term trend is upwards. Yesterday, the price broke through the resistance level of 115.40, and the next growth target was 116.1, which breakout allows the quotes to rise to the 117 area.

The medium-term trend is upwards. Last week, the price reversed at the support level of 114.45. It renewed the local high at 115.60, which breakout will allow the rate to rise to the 116.25 area.

Resistance levels: 116.1, 117.
Support levels: 114.3, 113.5, 112.7.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

Brent Crude Oil insights by Solid ECN Securities
Investors fear Iranian oil entering the market

Brent Crude Oil prices are correcting, trading around 90.20. The day before, the quotes of the trading instrument significantly lost in value against the backdrop of resumed negotiations in Vienna on the "nuclear deal" between Iran and the leading countries of Europe, in addition to which representatives of Russia and China take part. According to analysts' forecasts, it is the current eighth round of negotiations that has the highest chances of success. In the event that sanctions are lifted from the Iranian oil industry, up to 1.6M barrels of cheap oil per day may begin to enter the market, which, as investors fear, will upset the current balance of supply and demand.

The day before, the US Department of Energy published a traditional forecast for the oil market in the near future. Expected energy demand for 2022 rose to 100.6M barrels per day from 100.5M barrels. The forecast for the average oil production in the United States in 2022 was raised to 11.97M barrels per day, and to 12.6M barrels for 2023. The average oil price, according to the agency's expectations, will rise to 82.87 dollars instead of 74.95 dollars.

Support and resistance
On the global chart, the asset continues to rise as part of the global pattern Expanding Formation. Technical indicators are still holding a fairly strong buy signal: the fluctuation range of the Alligator EMA is still quite wide and the histogram of the AO oscillator, being in the buy zone, forms local bars with a downtrend.

Support levels: 88.07, 84.20.
Resistance levels: 92.20, 95.00.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

NZDUSD market insights by Solid ECN Securities
The pair is consolidation at local highs

The New Zealand dollar traded flat against the US dollar during the Asian session, holding near 0.668. The day before, NZDUSD showed active growth, updating local highs from January 26, in response to a general improvement in market sentiment.

In addition, the US currency remains under pressure ahead of today's publication of statistics on consumer inflation, as well as the monthly report on the state of the US budget for January. The market expects confirmation of a moderate increase in price pressure in the country, which will become an additional argument for the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy. The start of the interest rate hike cycle is expected in March, but now the main question is how much the rate will be adjusted.

Tomorrow, investors will be focused on a block of statistics from New Zealand. In particular, traders expect January statistics on Electronic Card Retail Sales, as well as Business NZ PMI. The index is projected to moderately increase from 53.7 to 55.3 points.

Resistance levels: 0.67, 0.6732, 0.6761, 0.68.
Support levels: 0.665, 0.66, 0.6528, 0.65.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

USDJPY insights by Solid ECN Securities
The market is waiting for US inflation data

During the Asian session, the USDJPY pair shows moderate growth, holding near local highs, renewed yesterday. The instrument is testing the level of 115.6 for a breakout, waiting for additional drivers to move.

Today, the focus of American investors is the January statistics on consumer inflation. It is expected that the price pressure in the US will continue to rise moderately and renew the previous 40-year highs. It will be an additional argument in favor of a more rapid tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which counts on launching a rate hike cycle in March.

Resistance levels: 115.67, 116, 116.34, 117.
Support levels: 115, 114.5, 114, 113.5.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

AUDUSD market insights by Solid ECN Securities
Australia's economy is recovering steadily

The Australian currency demonstrates relative stability against the background of the neutrality of the US dollar, currently forming a local uptrend and trading around 0.7172.

Macroeconomic statistics coming from Australia indicate that the country's economy continues to recover from the effects of the coronavirus pandemic confidently.The index of building permits issued for January added 8.2%, which coincided with preliminary market estimates and exceeded the December increase of 2.6%. Thus, the probability that the Australian dollar will end the trading week with positive dynamics is quite high.

The situation in the currency pair may seriously change today after the publication of inflation data in the US. Investors are closely watching the dynamics of consumer prices in light of the possible start of a cycle of interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve in March this year. According to analysts, the figure will rise to 7.3%, surpassing the December value of 7.0%. If the forecast is implemented, the probability of a rate increase will increase significantly, locally supporting the US dollar, which has been trading almost neutral since Monday.

On the global chart, the price moves within a long downtrend. Technical indicators are in the state of a sell signal, which is already ready to change to an upward one: the EMA fluctuation range on the Alligator indicator is actively narrowing, and the AO histogram forms upward bars in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 0.7227, 0.7415.
Support levels: 0.71, 0.698.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

EURUSD market insight by Solid ECN Securities
Trading within a new sideways range

The EURUSD pair is correcting within a sideways trend, trading around the level of 1.1426 with low volatility amid the lack of key macroeconomic statistics this week.

The prospects for the actions of the European Central Bank (ECB) are not entirely clear to investors since, at a recent meeting, its head Christine Lagarde made it clear that the regulator did not intend to tighten monetary policy now since the growth of the EU economy was still quite unstable.

The USD Index moves within a very tight range of around 95.5 in anticipation of the key event of this week – today's publication of data on consumer prices. Analysts expect the rate to rise to 7.3% from 7.0%, and yesterday, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Rafael Bostic said he expected at least three rate hikes this year, and the likelihood of a March adjustment was directly dependent on today's macroeconomic statistics.

Support and resistance
The asset moves within a new sideways range. Technical indicators reversed and gave a signal for local purchases: indicator Alligator's EMA fluctuations range began to expand upwards, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars in the purchase zone.

Resistance levels: 1.1480, 1.1689.
Support levels: 1.1373, 1.1142.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

ADAUSD Market Insights by Solid ECN Securities

Current trend
Since the beginning of this month, the ADAUSD pair has been growing in line with the general market trend.

At present, the price has risen to the level of 1.1718 but cannot consolidate above it yet. The asset is in consolidation, waiting for more serious movement drivers. The key "bullish" level is 1.27. Its breakout allows growth to the levels of 1.47 and 1.5625 (Murrey [8/8]). The breakdown of 1.0742, supported by the middle line of Bollinger bands, will ensure the resumption of decline to the levels of 0.9675, 0.8789, 0.7812.

Currently, the market is in a state of uncertainty: Bollinger bands narrows, as it happens before a significant price movement, the MACD histogram prepares to move into the positive zone and form a buy signal, but Stochastic reversed downwards.

Support and resistance
Resistance levels: 1.27, 1.47, 1.5625.
Support levels: 1.0742, 0.9675, 0.8789, 0.7812.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

GBPUSD Market insight by Solid ECN Securities
Consolidation ahead of the release of statistics from the USA

Now the price of the GBPUSD pair is trying to gain a foothold above 1.355, but a serious increase will be possible if the asset leaves the descending channel, breaking through the level of 1.361. At the same time, the targets of the upward dynamics will be 1.3732 and 1.3793. If the level of 1.3488 breaks down, the decline may continue to 1.3366 and 1.3300.

The indicators still do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is near the zero zone, its volumes are insignificant, and the Stochastic is directed downwards.

Resistance levels: 1.3610, 1.3732, 1.3793.
Support levels: 1.3488, 1.3366, 1.33.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

AUDUSD market insights by Solid ECN Securities
Australian currency updates local lows

The Australian dollar is developing a strong "bearish" momentum in tandem with the US currency, testing the level of 0.7120 for a breakdown and updating local lows from February 8.

In addition to technical correction factors at the end of the week, the downtrend was facilitated by strong macroeconomic statistics on inflation in the US, published the day before. The data showed a further acceleration in domestic consumer inflation to 7.5%, which is likely to require the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy sooner during 2022. The start of the interest rate hike cycle is expected in March, when the quantitative easing (QE) program comes to an end.

The focus of investors today will also be on the Fed Monetary Policy Report and data on Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for February.

Support and resistance
In the D1 chart, Bollinger Bands are reversing horizontally. The price range is almost unchanged, but it remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is reversing downwards preserving the previous weak buy signal. Stochastic, having rebounded from the level of "80" is declining, signaling in favor of the development of correctional dynamics in the ultra-short term.

Current showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bearish" trend in the short term.

Resistance levels: 0.716, 0.72, 0.7250, 0.73.
Support levels: 0.71, 0.705, 0.7, 0.695.​

 

[SOLID ECN LLC]

GBPUSD market insights by Solid ECN Securities
Correction after the publication of US inflation data

Current trend
During the Asian session, the GBPUSD pair is falling, testing the level of 1.352 for a breakdown.

The development of corrective dynamics at the end of the week is due to the appearance of strong US statistics on inflation, which forces investors to act ahead of the curve. There is practically no doubt that the US Federal Reserve will start a cycle of raising interest rates during the March meeting. Now the whole question is how fast the US regulator will tighten its monetary policy and whether the risks of rising consumer prices were correctly assessed from the very beginning.

Meanwhile, British investors expect on Friday a block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on GDP dynamics for the fourth quarter. Forecasts suggest some slowdown in the indicator from 6.8% to 6.4%. Also, December data on the dynamics of industrial production and an estimate of GDP growth rates from NIESR for January 2022 will be published during the day.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands move flat. The price range narrows slightly, remaining quite spacious for the observed trading dynamics for the instrument. MACD falls, keeping a poor sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). Stochastic shows a more confident decline, quickly approaching its lows, indicating that the pound may become oversold in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700.
Support levels: 1.3500, 1.3460, 1.3435, 1.3400.​