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Silver - H4

On the four-hour chart of the asset at the level of 18.22, there is a formation of a Long-Legged Doji candlestick analysis pattern, signaling uncertainty in the market or a possible reversal, which is also confirmed by the formation of the Morning Star pattern, after which the trading instrument showed a price recovery to the level of 19.07. At the moment, the quotes are moving in the sideways range of 18.62–19.07, where the Hammer and Bullish Belt Hold patterns have already appeared. Their combination signals that the asset has probably reached a low and is reversing. At the moment, the uptrend to the resistance level of 19.50 is seen as a priority, consolidation above which will allow the "bulls" to head to the zone of 20.95–24.19. An alternative scenario may be realized if the price breaks the key support level at 18.22, then the decline may intensify up to the level of 14.77.

D1

On the daily chart, there is the formation of a Falling Wedge price pattern, which may end at the support level of 18.22, and a Hammer, the appearance of which indicates that the price has reached the bottom. In the current situation, the scenario with an upward movement from the level of 18.22 is seen as a priority. Overcoming the upper border of the Falling Wedge and consolidation of the quotes above 19.50 will mean a final upward reversal and will allow the "bulls" to restore their positions in the range of 20.95–24.19.

Support levels: 18.22, 16.74, 14.77 | Resistance levels: 19.50, 20.95, 24.19

 

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The Australian currency continues its upward correction

The Australian currency is taking a lead from the positive momentum received the day before after the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on monetary policy. In particular, the document reflects the opinions of officials of the regulator, as well as full-fledged justifications for the recent increase in the interest rate by 50 basis points, and not by 25, as previously expected. The committee members decided to tighten monetary conditions more rapidly, taking into account the situation in the United States. The fact is that the US Federal Reserve clearly missed the moment when it was necessary to take tough measures regarding the adjustment of monetary parameters, and now, because of this, it is becoming increasingly difficult for officials to contain record inflation rates. Against this background, the RBA considered that a sharp increase in rates is the best option in these conditions, which will not allow them to face a recession in the future. Investors and analysts took the rhetoric of the financial authorities very positively and supported the Australian currency with purchases.



On the global chart, the price continues to remain inside the Expanding Formation pattern and, having rebounded from the support line, forms a new wave of corrective growth. Technical indicators signal the presence of a correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator began to approach the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the sell zone, forming ascending bars.

Support levels: 0.6857, 0.668 | Resistance levels: 0.699, 0.712​

 

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XRPUSD -Technical analysis

Currently, the price is testing its upper limit, consolidation above which will allow the cryptocurrency to continue moving to the area of 0.4150 (Fibo retracement 23.6%). Otherwise, the price will remain within the sideways range and resume its decline to the levels of 0.2930 and 0.2441.

Technical indicators confirm the high probability of the development of downward dynamics: the Bollinger Bands are horizontal, the MACD histogram is at the zero line, its volumes are insignificant, and the Stochastic has reached the oversold zone and is trying to reverse downwards. In general, further movement within the established lateral range is seen as the most priority scenario at the moment.

Resistance levels: 0.3660, 0.4150, 0.4395 | Support levels: 0.2930, 0.2441, 0.1953​

 

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GBPUSD - UK inflation reaches new highs

According to the June report, consumer prices rose by 0.8% compared to the previous month, and the annual rate rose to 9.4%, which was an absolute record among the world's leading economies. In turn, the Producer Price Index in just a month increased by 1.8%, and the annual value was 24.0% compared to 22.4%, shown in May. It is already becoming clear that any measures taken by the Bank of England are not able to contain the negative dynamics and, most likely, by the end of the year inflation will indeed exceed the 10.0% barrier, as some experts have previously anticipated. Investors were also disappointed with the report on the dynamics of changes in DCLG House Price Index, where now the annual value is 12.8%, which was not the case in the entire history of observations.

GBPUSD is trading within the global downtrend channel, reversing towards growth. Technical indicators hold a sell signal, but do not exclude an upward correction: the range of the Alligator indicator EMAs fluctuations started to narrow down and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms ascending bars.

Support levels: 1.1815, 1.154 | Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2627​

 

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USDJPY - the Bank of Japan announced the continuation of the redemption of bonds

The changes will not affect the interest rate, which is expected to be kept at a negative level of –0.10%, but, according to the decision of the officials, the rules for the redemption of government bonds will be adjusted. Purchases of securities will continue with no volume cap, and transactions in bonds with a fixed rate of 0.25% will now take place every business day. The bank also intends to acquire shares of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and real estate trusts worth about 12 trillion yen and 180 billion yen, respectively. In addition, corporate bond buybacks worth up to 3 trillion yen will continue. Thus, one can say with confidence that the high volatility in USD/JPY will increase, and against the backdrop of a declining US dollar, the yen has high chances for a correction.

The trading instrument is trading in the global uptrend, below the annual high of 139.00. Technical indicators are holding a buy signal, which started to weaken: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is slightly narrowing and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new descending bars and approaching the transition level.

Support levels: 136.7, 134.2 | Resistance levels: 139, 141​

 

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Crude Oil - lower demand for gasoline in the USA puts pressure on quotes

Earlier, data from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy (EIA) were published, which put pressure on the positions of the trading instrument. In particular, oil reserves decreased by 0.446M barrels, and distillates — by 1.296M barrels, while gasoline reserves in the USA immediately increased by 3.498M barrels, which worries investors, since such a rapid drop in gasoline demand during the summer car season can mean serious problems in the national economy. Probably, the population cannot pay for fuel at the new high tariffs, which threatens to further reduce its sales. An additional factor of pressure on prices is the resumption of production at a number of fields in Libya, where a regime of force majeure was previously announced.

Now the trading instrument is testing the mark of 103.12 (Murray [1/8]), consolidation below which will allow the quotes to continue moving to the area of 100 (Murray [0/8], Fibo retracement 50.0%) and 96.88 (Murray [-1/8]). The key for the "bulls" is still the level of 108, the breakout of which will be a catalyst for growth to the levels of 112.5 (Murray [4/8]), 115.62 (Murray [5/8]).

Technical indicators signal the continuation of the decline: the Bollinger Bands are directed downwards, the Stochastic is reversing downwards in the overbought zone, and the MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone.

Resistance levels: 108, 112.50, 115.62 | Support levels: 103.12, 100.00, 96.88​

 

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FTSE 100 - markets awaiting ECB interest rate decision

The focus of investors remains on today's meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), which is likely to make a decision on the first interest rate increase since 2011. According to analysts' forecasts, the indicator will be corrected by 0.25%, and given that inflation in the eurozone remained at 8.6% in May, this is the most logical decision. The opposite situation is observed in the UK, where macroeconomic data, presented the day before, recorded an acceleration of inflation to 9.4%, reflecting the most rapid pace in the last 40 years. The negative dynamics of indicators will push the officials of the Bank of England to accelerate the pace of tightening monetary parameters, which, in turn, will increase the cost of borrowing for businesses.

Quotes of the trading instrument are traded within the global side channel, being in the middle of the range. Technical indicators are holding a sell signal that remains fairly weak: the fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is narrowed almost completely, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is very close to the transition level.

Support levels: 7077, 6825 | Resistance levels: 7357, 7620​

 

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USDCHF - trading instrument is preparing to continue to decline

However, there are no prerequisites for the strengthening of the franc at the moment either. Instead, the economic situation in Switzerland is rapidly deteriorating, and in the near future the country may face an acute energy crisis. At least, this is what Michael Frank, director of the VSE association of Swiss electricity companies, said. According to him, power outages were caused by a reduction in gas supplies from Russia and the shutdown of nuclear power plants in France for maintenance. The only way to stabilize the situation, Frank sees a phased reduction in resource consumption, which, in particular, includes limiting the illuminating of shop windows and streets, and if this is not enough, then turning off individual regions for four hours in turn. The Swiss authorities predict an increase in the negative dynamics of electricity prices. According to the head of the government’s advisory commission for electricity, Elcom, Urs Meister, ordinary citizens' electricity bills could grow by an average of 20% next year. This conclusion comes from a survey of suppliers who intend to raise prices by 47% amid rising coal prices, likely problems with exports from neighboring countries and global supply uncertainty.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the lateral channel, preparing to continue the local decline. Technical indicators have almost reversed and issued a sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator came close to the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram has already moved into the sell zone, continuing to form descending bars.

Support levels: 0.9652, 0.953 | Resistance levels: 0.9739, 1​

 

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EURUSD - the ECB raised its base rate for the first time since 2011​

Euro quotes reacted ambiguously to the decision of the European Central Bank (ECB) to tighten monetary policy at a more aggressive pace. The result of the meeting of the regulator, which took place the day before, was an increase in all three key indicators by 50 basis points at once for the first time after an 11-year break. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be increased to 0.50%, 0.75% and 0.00% respectively, with effect from 27 July 2022. In addition, the ECB noted the expediency of continuing the "hawkish" course. In particular, the Asset Purchase Programme (APP) and the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) will continue, and the launch of Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) will be announced, which will minimize discrepancies in borrowing costs for euro area countries. As a result, it is obvious that the ECB considers the current time to be suitable for a more serious increase in rates and hopes in this way to significantly reduce the rapid inflation by autumn, bringing it to the target of 2.0% in 2023.

Despite the external pressure, EUR/USD is holding within the global downward channel and is now forming another wave of corrective growth. Technical indicators gave a signal for the beginning of the correction: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively approaching the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is forming upward bars.

Support levels: 1 , 0.9752 | Resistance levels: 1.0277, 1.0586​

 

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In the shares of the American company Snap, which owns the Snapchat application, a global downtrend is developing, and at the moment the quotes of the trading instrument are around 16.00.

On the daily chart, a global downtrend is forming, which is the result of the implementation of the Triangle pattern, and after the price gap with the boundaries of 15 – 22, the price makes attempts to work it out.

On the four-hour timeframe, it is clearly seen that the most serious attempt to close this price gap is taking place right now, since the quotes have already overcome the key level of 15.5 and continue to grow actively. Nevertheless, another serious obstacle for the upward movement is the resistance line of the global trend at 17.00, the overcoming of which will become the main marker of a change in the trend.

Technical indicators are ready to issue a buy signal: the range of EMA fluctuations on the Alligator indicator is trying to begin expanding in the direction of growth, and the histogram of the AO oscillator has already moved to the buy zone.​