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Chapter 40, Graduation! Page 4

Discussion in 'Complete Trading Education- Forex Military School' started by Sive Morten, Dec 28, 2013.

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  1. Sive Morten

    Sive Morten Special Consultant to the FPA

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    There is no Holy Grail

    I strongly recommend you to read Jack Schwager book “Market Wizards” and “New Market Wizards” sometime. Although each famous trader has its own way with markets and spin about his or her journey differently from each other – all of them have something common that become hallmarks of market success:

    - There is no way to predict the future. Nobody can do this. That why we’ve discussed an emergency plan and that it has to exist. All that you can do is to be prepared for a possible crash of markets;

    - Nobody can predict markets with certainty 100% of the time. Probably you often notice that market after some awaited press release, news or some data acts differently than expected – in contradiction with logical behavior. And you can’t find an explanation to that. Maybe some big hedge fund was locked in the wrong position, maybe banks have expected different numbers, maybe the market already has included this data in prices and so on. There are million of reasons could be for a not logical price move. The point is simple. If trading was as simple as interpretation of data – was it positive or negative, than all traders would be billionaires already. There is always uncertainty that exists, and you never know where it could come from. There are millions of traders in the world and every one of them has his or her own orders, positions, view and treating of particular news or data. What is the conclusion? You will be many times on the wrong side of the market. This is normal for such a kind of business as trading. But…

    - Probability is what is really important. This leads us to follow the conclusion that trading is a probability business. You maybe on wrong side, but probability should be always on your side. If this is not the case then your business is in the bad way. If you’re brinksman – it will be hard for you to deal with trading.

    Take a note that we’ve discussed all these issues in the School in much detail.
     
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